{
  "product": "sPEG Index — durable scarcity selection with valuation context",
  "release_id": "speg-index-2026-09-17-v1",
  "release_state": "released",
  "method_id": "speg-index-scarcity-v1.0.0",
  "schema_version": "speg-index-profile-v1.0.0",
  "research_cutoff": "2026-09-17",
  "publication_at": "2026-09-18T00:15:00Z",
  "effective_at": "2026-09-18T00:15:00Z",
  "predecessor_release_id": "speg-index-2026-09-17-rc1",
  "content_hash": "sha256:dd781d157b8ea937d6797ce3e6b29b04685993d631fda989e15bfb0b2eb5592a",
  "membership_mutated": true,
  "coverage": {
    "candidate_count": 1,
    "include_recommendations": 1,
    "watchlist": 0,
    "insufficient_evidence": 0,
    "exclude": 0,
    "released_members": 1,
    "qualified_member_count": 1
  },
  "profiles": [
    {
      "identity": {
        "issuer_id": "tsmc",
        "stable_slug": "tsmc",
        "legal_name": "Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited",
        "display_name": "TSMC",
        "securities": [],
        "pricing_identity_status": "not_assembled"
      },
      "scope": {
        "mechanism_id": "advanced-foundry-qualification-ecosystem",
        "mechanism_family": "manufacturing_qualification",
        "customer_problem": "Manufacture advanced semiconductors at qualified yield, scale, and process performance.",
        "business_perimeter": "Advanced-process manufacturing and its qualification and design ecosystem, with advanced packaging as a related capability.",
        "company_attribution_route": "integrated_capability",
        "coverage": {
          "numerator": null,
          "denominator": null,
          "period": null,
          "qualitative_rationale": "Advanced manufacturing is central across the foundry business; the reported 7nm-and-below wafer mix is not mislabeled as consolidated revenue."
        },
        "materiality_status": "adequate",
        "materiality_rationale": "Advanced manufacturing is central across the foundry business; the reported 7nm-and-below wafer mix is not mislabeled as consolidated revenue.",
        "dependencies": [
          "customer design commitments",
          "equipment supply",
          "geographic continuity",
          "capital deployment",
          "export permissions"
        ]
      },
      "dimensions": {
        "constraint": {
          "value": 3,
          "anchor_id": "C3",
          "reason": "Few foundries can provide the relevant combined manufacturing, yield, and qualification capability at scale.",
          "source_ids": [
            "T1",
            "T2",
            "X2"
          ],
          "counterevidence": [
            "Samsung reports active 2nm and HBM engagements and ramps, demonstrating competitive response without proving equivalent yield or scale."
          ],
          "confidence": "Moderate",
          "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet contains traceable primary evidence and an external challenge, with visible limits on magnitude or duration.",
          "plausible_alternative_anchor": null
        },
        "substitution_resistance": {
          "value": 3,
          "anchor_id": "S3",
          "reason": "Customer process integration and design qualification impose substantial migration burden.",
          "source_ids": [
            "T1",
            "T2",
            "X2"
          ],
          "counterevidence": [
            "Samsung reports active 2nm and HBM engagements and ramps, demonstrating competitive response without proving equivalent yield or scale."
          ],
          "confidence": "Moderate",
          "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet contains traceable primary evidence and an external challenge, with visible limits on magnitude or duration.",
          "plausible_alternative_anchor": null
        },
        "economic_capture": {
          "value": 3,
          "anchor_id": "E3",
          "reason": "Reported operating margins show retained economics, though the packet does not isolate scarcity rent from cycle and mix.",
          "source_ids": [
            "T1",
            "T3"
          ],
          "counterevidence": [
            "Samsung reports active 2nm and HBM engagements and ramps, demonstrating competitive response without proving equivalent yield or scale."
          ],
          "confidence": "Moderate",
          "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet contains traceable primary evidence and an external challenge, with visible limits on magnitude or duration.",
          "plausible_alternative_anchor": null
        },
        "persistence": {
          "value": 3,
          "anchor_id": "P3",
          "reason": "The qualification ecosystem supports a three-to-five-year path while rival ramps remain an explicit response.",
          "source_ids": [
            "T1",
            "T3",
            "X2"
          ],
          "counterevidence": [
            "Samsung reports active 2nm and HBM engagements and ramps, demonstrating competitive response without proving equivalent yield or scale."
          ],
          "confidence": "Moderate",
          "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet contains traceable primary evidence and an external challenge, with visible limits on magnitude or duration.",
          "plausible_alternative_anchor": null
        },
        "cost_of_defense": {
          "value": 2,
          "anchor_id": "D2",
          "reason": "Large capital requirements and expected ramp dilution make retained economics sensitive to defense spending.",
          "source_ids": [
            "T1",
            "T3"
          ],
          "counterevidence": [
            "Samsung reports active 2nm and HBM engagements and ramps, demonstrating competitive response without proving equivalent yield or scale."
          ],
          "confidence": "Moderate",
          "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet contains traceable primary evidence and an external challenge, with visible limits on magnitude or duration.",
          "plausible_alternative_anchor": null
        }
      },
      "score": {
        "method_id": "speg-index-scarcity-v1.0.0",
        "total": 14,
        "vector": [
          3,
          3,
          3,
          3,
          2
        ],
        "scale": "ordinal",
        "label": "Scarcity Durability Score",
        "meaning": "Ordinal research summary; not a probability, percentile, rank, or numerical valuation input."
      },
      "eligibility": {
        "eligible_for_inclusion": true,
        "dimension_floors": {
          "pass": true,
          "reason": "C/S/E/P meet 3 and D meets 2."
        },
        "materiality": {
          "pass": true,
          "reason": "Company-level materiality route is documented."
        },
        "decisive_confidence": {
          "pass": true,
          "reason": "Every decisive dimension is at least Moderate confidence."
        },
        "source_packet": {
          "pass": true,
          "reason": "Minimum admission packet is present for the draft judgment."
        },
        "current_review": {
          "pass": true,
          "reason": "Structural review is current at the research cutoff."
        },
        "material_event": {
          "pass": true,
          "reason": "No unresolved material eligibility event is recorded at the research cutoff."
        },
        "reason_codes": []
      },
      "decision": {
        "research_decision": "include",
        "membership_state": "member",
        "owner": "Mike Ye",
        "prepared_by": "Ella",
        "rationale": "14/20; include\n\n**Perimeter:** advanced process manufacturing and its qualification/design ecosystem, with packaging as a related capability. Q2 wafer mix was 77% at 7nm and below; this is wafer revenue, not consolidated revenue. The integrated-capability route supports company-level selection. Q2 revenue was $40.2bn, operating margin 60.3%; management reported $15.7bn quarterly capex and a $60–64bn annual capital budget. Management also anticipates margin dilution from new-node and overseas ramps. [T1–T3]\n\n**Judgment:** C3 reflects the combined manufacturing/qualification ecosystem and the existence of competing foundries. S3/E3/P3 recognize customer process integration and earnings retention with a reasoned three-to-five-year path. D2 captures the material cost of maintaining capability. Samsung's own results describe 2nm engagements and planned ramps, demonstrating an active competitive response rather than proving equivalent scale or yield. [X2]\n\n**Review/removal trigger:** rival production proves sufficiently substitutable at relevant performance/yield/scale, leading customers shift meaningful designs, or defense investment persistently consumes retained economics. Next review at results or by December 16. Geographic and customer concentration are additional risks, not score bonuses. A full capital-return comparison and customer-specific switching evidence remain incomplete.",
        "falsifiers": [
          "Rival production proves substitutable at relevant yield, performance, and scale",
          "Leading customers shift meaningful designs",
          "Defense investment persistently consumes retained economics"
        ],
        "next_observation": "Update capital returns, customer switching evidence, rival yields, and overseas-ramp economics at results.",
        "due_date": "2026-12-16"
      },
      "review": {
        "as_of_cutoff": "2026-09-17",
        "reviewed_at": "2026-09-17T23:48:49Z",
        "source_dates": [
          "2026-07-16",
          "2026-07-16",
          "2026-07-16",
          "2026-07-30"
        ],
        "next_review_due": "2026-12-16",
        "event_status": "clear_at_research_cutoff",
        "publication_at": "2026-09-18T00:15:00Z",
        "effective_at": "2026-09-18T00:15:00Z"
      },
      "sensitivity": {
        "single_dimension_downgrade_pass": {
          "constraint": false,
          "substitution_resistance": false,
          "economic_capture": false,
          "persistence": false,
          "cost_of_defense": false
        },
        "binding_dimensions": [
          "constraint",
          "substitution_resistance",
          "economic_capture",
          "persistence",
          "cost_of_defense"
        ],
        "interpretation": "rule_sensitivity_not_confidence_interval"
      },
      "release": {
        "state": "released",
        "release_id": "speg-index-2026-09-17-v1",
        "predecessor_release_id": "speg-index-2026-09-17-rc1",
        "change_reasons": [
          "initial_membership_release",
          "freshness_and_material_event_review"
        ],
        "content_hash": "sha256:dd781d157b8ea937d6797ce3e6b29b04685993d631fda989e15bfb0b2eb5592a"
      },
      "valuation": {
        "peg_eligible": false,
        "peg": null,
        "peg_null_reason": "qualified_reference_path_not_assembled",
        "economic_profile_id": null,
        "economic_speg": null,
        "economic_speg_null_reason": "paired_valuation_uncalibrated",
        "sds_used_as_valuation_input": false
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "id": "T1",
      "publisher": "TSMC",
      "url": "https://investor.tsmc.com/english/quarterly-results/2026/q2",
      "title": "TSMC Q2 results",
      "publication_date": "2026-07-16",
      "event_date": "2026-07-16",
      "reporting_period": "Q2 2026",
      "retrieval_date": "2026-09-17",
      "locator": "July 16, 2026; actuals",
      "origin_group": "tsmc",
      "claim_type": "reported_fact",
      "factual_summary": "Quarterly actual results and profitability.",
      "limitations": "Reported margins; fresh retrieval does not renew forecast vintage"
    },
    {
      "id": "T2",
      "publisher": "TSMC",
      "url": "https://investor.tsmc.com/english/encrypt/files/encrypt_file/reports/2026-07/a80d7933be643644081584087731f73b22ea5a2c/2Q26%20EarningsRelease.pdf",
      "title": "TSMC Q2 earnings release",
      "publication_date": "2026-07-16",
      "event_date": "2026-07-16",
      "reporting_period": "Q2 2026",
      "retrieval_date": "2026-09-17",
      "locator": "July 16, 2026; page 1",
      "origin_group": "tsmc",
      "claim_type": "reported_fact",
      "factual_summary": "Earnings release with the reported advanced-node wafer-revenue mix.",
      "limitations": "Wafer mix denominator distinguished"
    },
    {
      "id": "T3",
      "publisher": "TSMC",
      "url": "https://investor.tsmc.com/english/encrypt/files/encrypt_file/reports/2026-08/3e494f0c14dd0890f897aa044415e21d93486cc4/TSMC%202Q26%20Transcript.pdf",
      "title": "TSMC Q2 call",
      "publication_date": "2026-07-16",
      "event_date": "2026-07-16",
      "reporting_period": "Q2 2026",
      "retrieval_date": "2026-09-17",
      "locator": "July 16 event; pages 3–4",
      "origin_group": "tsmc",
      "claim_type": "management_assertion",
      "factual_summary": "Earnings-call disclosures on capital spending and margin dilution from new-node and overseas ramps.",
      "limitations": "Capex and dilution are management disclosures; LSEG transcript hosted by issuer"
    },
    {
      "id": "X2",
      "publisher": "Samsung Electronics",
      "url": "https://news.samsung.com/global/samsung-electronics-announces-second-quarter-2026-results",
      "title": "Samsung Q2 results",
      "publication_date": "2026-07-30",
      "event_date": "2026-07-30",
      "reporting_period": "Q2 2026",
      "retrieval_date": "2026-09-17",
      "locator": "July 30, 2026; DS section",
      "origin_group": "samsung",
      "claim_type": "counterevidence",
      "factual_summary": "Rival foundry and HBM activity, engagements, and planned ramps.",
      "limitations": "Rival HBM/foundry activity; plans not equivalent qualified scale"
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "research_owner": "Mike Ye",
    "prepared_by": "Ella",
    "source_count": 4,
    "source_origin_groups": [
      "samsung",
      "tsmc"
    ],
    "notes": "First released sPEG Index snapshot. Five profiles satisfy every admission gate and become members; five remain non-member watchlist research. SDS remains ordinal selection evidence, valuation remains null, and no return or portfolio-weight claim is made."
  },
  "links": {
    "self": "https://mcp.exmxc.ai/speg/index/v1",
    "methodology": "https://mcp.exmxc.ai/speg/index/v1/methodology",
    "schema": "https://mcp.exmxc.ai/schemas/speg-index-profile-v1",
    "release": "https://mcp.exmxc.ai/speg/index/v1/releases/speg-index-2026-09-17-v1",
    "public_hub": "https://www.exmxc.ai/speg-index",
    "public_methodology": "https://www.exmxc.ai/speg-methodology"
  }
}