{
  "product": "sPEG Index — durable scarcity selection with valuation context",
  "release_id": "speg-index-2026-09-17-v1",
  "release_state": "released",
  "method_id": "speg-index-scarcity-v1.0.0",
  "schema_version": "speg-index-profile-v1.0.0",
  "research_cutoff": "2026-09-17",
  "publication_at": "2026-09-18T00:15:00Z",
  "effective_at": "2026-09-18T00:15:00Z",
  "predecessor_release_id": "speg-index-2026-09-17-rc1",
  "content_hash": "sha256:dd781d157b8ea937d6797ce3e6b29b04685993d631fda989e15bfb0b2eb5592a",
  "membership_mutated": true,
  "coverage": {
    "candidate_count": 1,
    "include_recommendations": 1,
    "watchlist": 0,
    "insufficient_evidence": 0,
    "exclude": 0,
    "released_members": 1,
    "qualified_member_count": 1
  },
  "profiles": [
    {
      "identity": {
        "issuer_id": "synopsys",
        "stable_slug": "synopsys",
        "legal_name": "Synopsys, Inc.",
        "display_name": "Synopsys",
        "securities": [],
        "pricing_identity_status": "not_assembled"
      },
      "scope": {
        "mechanism_id": "silicon-to-systems-design-workflow",
        "mechanism_family": "design_workflow",
        "customer_problem": "Design, verify, and integrate semiconductors and systems against qualified process requirements.",
        "business_perimeter": "Established EDA and IP capability, with newly consolidated Ansys operations separated from the core scarcity claim.",
        "company_attribution_route": "integrated_capability",
        "coverage": {
          "numerator": null,
          "denominator": null,
          "period": null,
          "qualitative_rationale": "EDA and IP are central to the company; acquisition-driven revenue is not treated as proof of scarcity."
        },
        "materiality_status": "adequate",
        "materiality_rationale": "EDA and IP are central to the company; acquisition-driven revenue is not treated as proof of scarcity.",
        "dependencies": [
          "foundry process roadmaps",
          "Ansys integration",
          "customer workflow renewal",
          "engineering talent"
        ]
      },
      "dimensions": {
        "constraint": {
          "value": 3,
          "anchor_id": "C3",
          "reason": "Established process-linked workflows and IP are difficult to reproduce, but qualified alternatives exist.",
          "source_ids": [
            "S1",
            "X1"
          ],
          "counterevidence": [
            "Foundry alliance evidence shows multiple qualified design providers, and acquisition accounting creates a wide GAAP-adjusted gap."
          ],
          "confidence": "Moderate",
          "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet contains traceable primary evidence and an external challenge, with visible limits on magnitude or duration.",
          "plausible_alternative_anchor": null
        },
        "substitution_resistance": {
          "value": 3,
          "anchor_id": "S3",
          "reason": "Workflow, model, and process migration impose substantial operational burden.",
          "source_ids": [
            "S1",
            "X1"
          ],
          "counterevidence": [
            "Foundry alliance evidence shows multiple qualified design providers, and acquisition accounting creates a wide GAAP-adjusted gap."
          ],
          "confidence": "Moderate",
          "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet contains traceable primary evidence and an external challenge, with visible limits on magnitude or duration.",
          "plausible_alternative_anchor": null
        },
        "economic_capture": {
          "value": 3,
          "anchor_id": "E3",
          "reason": "Current operating earnings support capture, with acquisition effects and adjustments explicitly limiting the inference.",
          "source_ids": [
            "S1"
          ],
          "counterevidence": [
            "Foundry alliance evidence shows multiple qualified design providers, and acquisition accounting creates a wide GAAP-adjusted gap."
          ],
          "confidence": "Moderate",
          "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet contains traceable primary evidence and an external challenge, with visible limits on magnitude or duration.",
          "plausible_alternative_anchor": null
        },
        "persistence": {
          "value": 3,
          "anchor_id": "P3",
          "reason": "Process-linked workflow integration supports a three-to-five-year case subject to continued qualification relevance.",
          "source_ids": [
            "S1",
            "X1"
          ],
          "counterevidence": [
            "Foundry alliance evidence shows multiple qualified design providers, and acquisition accounting creates a wide GAAP-adjusted gap."
          ],
          "confidence": "Moderate",
          "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet contains traceable primary evidence and an external challenge, with visible limits on magnitude or duration.",
          "plausible_alternative_anchor": null
        },
        "cost_of_defense": {
          "value": 2,
          "anchor_id": "D2",
          "reason": "Acquisition integration and the GAAP-adjusted earnings gap make retained economics sensitive to full defense and integration costs.",
          "source_ids": [
            "S1"
          ],
          "counterevidence": [
            "Foundry alliance evidence shows multiple qualified design providers, and acquisition accounting creates a wide GAAP-adjusted gap."
          ],
          "confidence": "Moderate",
          "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet contains traceable primary evidence and an external challenge, with visible limits on magnitude or duration.",
          "plausible_alternative_anchor": null
        }
      },
      "score": {
        "method_id": "speg-index-scarcity-v1.0.0",
        "total": 14,
        "vector": [
          3,
          3,
          3,
          3,
          2
        ],
        "scale": "ordinal",
        "label": "Scarcity Durability Score",
        "meaning": "Ordinal research summary; not a probability, percentile, rank, or numerical valuation input."
      },
      "eligibility": {
        "eligible_for_inclusion": true,
        "dimension_floors": {
          "pass": true,
          "reason": "C/S/E/P meet 3 and D meets 2."
        },
        "materiality": {
          "pass": true,
          "reason": "Company-level materiality route is documented."
        },
        "decisive_confidence": {
          "pass": true,
          "reason": "Every decisive dimension is at least Moderate confidence."
        },
        "source_packet": {
          "pass": true,
          "reason": "Minimum admission packet is present for the draft judgment."
        },
        "current_review": {
          "pass": true,
          "reason": "Structural review is current at the research cutoff."
        },
        "material_event": {
          "pass": true,
          "reason": "No unresolved material eligibility event is recorded at the research cutoff."
        },
        "reason_codes": []
      },
      "decision": {
        "research_decision": "include",
        "membership_state": "member",
        "owner": "Mike Ye",
        "prepared_by": "Ella",
        "rationale": "14/20; include, at the admission floor\n\n**Perimeter:** integrated silicon-to-systems design, with explicit separation of established EDA/IP from newly consolidated Ansys operations. The company-level route is qualitative; the acquisition's entire revenue increase is not scarcity.\n\n**Evidence:** Q3 FY2026 revenue $2.477bn, GAAP operating margin 14.4% versus adjusted 41.6%, R&D $719.7m. The outlook includes substantial Ansys revenue; comparison with the prior perimeter needs care. TSMC lists Synopsys among multiple EDA partners, supporting integration while documenting alternatives. [S1, X1]\n\n**Judgment:** C3/S3/P3 for established process-linked workflows and IP; E3 for current retained operating earnings, not adjusted growth alone. D2 explicitly reflects the acquisition/integration burden and wide GAAP adjustment gap. Inclusion relies on the established core capability, not on an assumed Ansys synergy premium.\n\n**Review/removal trigger:** integration or funding costs make D1 appropriate, core workflows lose qualified relevance, or evidence shows the economic benefit is not retained. Next review at results, material integration update, or December 16. An acquisition-normalized cash and compensation series remains a priority. Any one-point downgrade changes eligibility; this is one of the two proposed admissions with no score-floor headroom and must be shown as such.",
        "falsifiers": [
          "Integration or funding costs that make D1 appropriate",
          "Loss of qualified relevance in core workflows",
          "Evidence that operating benefit is not retained"
        ],
        "next_observation": "Assemble an acquisition-normalized cash, compensation, and integration-cost series at results.",
        "due_date": "2026-12-16"
      },
      "review": {
        "as_of_cutoff": "2026-09-17",
        "reviewed_at": "2026-09-17T23:48:49Z",
        "source_dates": [
          "2026-08-26",
          null
        ],
        "next_review_due": "2026-12-16",
        "event_status": "clear_at_research_cutoff",
        "publication_at": "2026-09-18T00:15:00Z",
        "effective_at": "2026-09-18T00:15:00Z"
      },
      "sensitivity": {
        "single_dimension_downgrade_pass": {
          "constraint": false,
          "substitution_resistance": false,
          "economic_capture": false,
          "persistence": false,
          "cost_of_defense": false
        },
        "binding_dimensions": [
          "constraint",
          "substitution_resistance",
          "economic_capture",
          "persistence",
          "cost_of_defense"
        ],
        "interpretation": "rule_sensitivity_not_confidence_interval"
      },
      "release": {
        "state": "released",
        "release_id": "speg-index-2026-09-17-v1",
        "predecessor_release_id": "speg-index-2026-09-17-rc1",
        "change_reasons": [
          "initial_membership_release",
          "freshness_and_material_event_review"
        ],
        "content_hash": "sha256:dd781d157b8ea937d6797ce3e6b29b04685993d631fda989e15bfb0b2eb5592a"
      },
      "valuation": {
        "peg_eligible": false,
        "peg": null,
        "peg_null_reason": "qualified_reference_path_not_assembled",
        "economic_profile_id": null,
        "economic_speg": null,
        "economic_speg_null_reason": "paired_valuation_uncalibrated",
        "sds_used_as_valuation_input": false
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "id": "S1",
      "publisher": "Synopsys",
      "url": "https://news.synopsys.com/2026-08-26-Synopsys-Posts-Financial-Results-for-Third-Quarter-Fiscal-Year-2026",
      "title": "Synopsys Q3 results",
      "publication_date": "2026-08-26",
      "event_date": "2026-08-26",
      "reporting_period": "Q3 FY2026",
      "retrieval_date": "2026-09-17",
      "locator": "August 26, 2026; results/outlook/reconciliation",
      "origin_group": "synopsys",
      "claim_type": "reported_fact",
      "factual_summary": "Quarterly financial results, outlook, and acquisition-sensitive reconciliation.",
      "limitations": "Acquisition perimeter and GAAP adjustment limits"
    },
    {
      "id": "X1",
      "publisher": "TSMC",
      "url": "https://www.tsmc.com/english/dedicatedFoundry/oip/eda_alliance",
      "title": "TSMC EDA Alliance",
      "publication_date": null,
      "event_date": null,
      "reporting_period": null,
      "retrieval_date": "2026-09-17",
      "locator": "Partner list April 22; certification tables July 10, 2026",
      "origin_group": "tsmc-eda-alliance",
      "claim_type": "counterevidence",
      "factual_summary": "Foundry alliance and certification materials showing workflow integration and multiple competing EDA providers.",
      "limitations": "External structural support and competing providers; no unobserved icon-level claims"
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "research_owner": "Mike Ye",
    "prepared_by": "Ella",
    "source_count": 2,
    "source_origin_groups": [
      "synopsys",
      "tsmc-eda-alliance"
    ],
    "notes": "First released sPEG Index snapshot. Five profiles satisfy every admission gate and become members; five remain non-member watchlist research. SDS remains ordinal selection evidence, valuation remains null, and no return or portfolio-weight claim is made."
  },
  "links": {
    "self": "https://mcp.exmxc.ai/speg/index/v1",
    "methodology": "https://mcp.exmxc.ai/speg/index/v1/methodology",
    "schema": "https://mcp.exmxc.ai/schemas/speg-index-profile-v1",
    "release": "https://mcp.exmxc.ai/speg/index/v1/releases/speg-index-2026-09-17-v1",
    "public_hub": "https://www.exmxc.ai/speg-index",
    "public_methodology": "https://www.exmxc.ai/speg-methodology"
  }
}