{
  "product": "sPEG Index — durable scarcity selection with valuation context",
  "release_id": "speg-index-2026-09-17-v1",
  "release_state": "released",
  "method_id": "speg-index-scarcity-v1.0.0",
  "schema_version": "speg-index-profile-v1.0.0",
  "research_cutoff": "2026-09-17",
  "publication_at": "2026-09-18T00:15:00Z",
  "effective_at": "2026-09-18T00:15:00Z",
  "predecessor_release_id": "speg-index-2026-09-17-rc1",
  "content_hash": "sha256:dd781d157b8ea937d6797ce3e6b29b04685993d631fda989e15bfb0b2eb5592a",
  "membership_mutated": true,
  "coverage": {
    "candidate_count": 1,
    "include_recommendations": 0,
    "watchlist": 1,
    "insufficient_evidence": 0,
    "exclude": 0,
    "released_members": 0,
    "qualified_member_count": 0
  },
  "profiles": [
    {
      "identity": {
        "issuer_id": "sk-hynix",
        "stable_slug": "sk-hynix",
        "legal_name": "SK hynix Inc.",
        "display_name": "SK hynix",
        "securities": [],
        "pricing_identity_status": "not_assembled"
      },
      "scope": {
        "mechanism_id": "qualified-high-bandwidth-memory",
        "mechanism_family": "manufacturing_qualification",
        "customer_problem": "Supply qualified high-bandwidth memory at required performance, packaging, and scale.",
        "business_perimeter": "HBM design, manufacturing, and packaging capability inside a broader DRAM and NAND business.",
        "company_attribution_route": "not_established",
        "coverage": {
          "numerator": null,
          "denominator": null,
          "period": null,
          "qualitative_rationale": "The packet does not bridge the narrower HBM mechanism to the full company perimeter without importing broader memory-cycle economics."
        },
        "materiality_status": "unassessable",
        "materiality_rationale": "The packet does not bridge the narrower HBM mechanism to the full company perimeter without importing broader memory-cycle economics.",
        "dependencies": [
          "AI accelerator demand",
          "customer qualification",
          "packaging capacity",
          "memory pricing",
          "capital investment"
        ]
      },
      "dimensions": {
        "constraint": {
          "value": 3,
          "anchor_id": "C3",
          "reason": "HBM capability and packaging qualification create meaningful supply barriers with active qualified rivals.",
          "source_ids": [
            "H1",
            "X2"
          ],
          "counterevidence": [
            "Samsung reports HBM4 sales and HBM4E sampling, while announced new capacity is not current qualified output."
          ],
          "confidence": "Moderate",
          "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet contains traceable primary evidence and an external challenge, with visible limits on magnitude or duration.",
          "plausible_alternative_anchor": null
        },
        "substitution_resistance": {
          "value": 3,
          "anchor_id": "S3",
          "reason": "Customer qualification imposes material burden, though alternative supply exists.",
          "source_ids": [
            "H1",
            "X2"
          ],
          "counterevidence": [
            "Samsung reports HBM4 sales and HBM4E sampling, while announced new capacity is not current qualified output."
          ],
          "confidence": "Moderate",
          "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet contains traceable primary evidence and an external challenge, with visible limits on magnitude or duration.",
          "plausible_alternative_anchor": null
        },
        "economic_capture": {
          "value": 3,
          "anchor_id": "E3",
          "reason": "Current operating capture is visible but partly coincides with memory-price increases.",
          "source_ids": [
            "H1"
          ],
          "counterevidence": [
            "Samsung reports HBM4 sales and HBM4E sampling, while announced new capacity is not current qualified output."
          ],
          "confidence": "Moderate",
          "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet contains traceable primary evidence and an external challenge, with visible limits on magnitude or duration.",
          "plausible_alternative_anchor": null
        },
        "persistence": {
          "value": 2,
          "anchor_id": "P2",
          "reason": "Contract resets and rival ramps leave three-to-five-year retention unresolved.",
          "source_ids": [
            "H1",
            "X2"
          ],
          "counterevidence": [
            "Samsung reports HBM4 sales and HBM4E sampling, while announced new capacity is not current qualified output."
          ],
          "confidence": "Moderate",
          "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet contains traceable primary evidence and an external challenge, with visible limits on magnitude or duration.",
          "plausible_alternative_anchor": null
        },
        "cost_of_defense": {
          "value": 2,
          "anchor_id": "D2",
          "reason": "Continued capital investment makes residual economics plausible but sensitive.",
          "source_ids": [
            "H1",
            "H2"
          ],
          "counterevidence": [
            "Samsung reports HBM4 sales and HBM4E sampling, while announced new capacity is not current qualified output."
          ],
          "confidence": "Moderate",
          "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet contains traceable primary evidence and an external challenge, with visible limits on magnitude or duration.",
          "plausible_alternative_anchor": null
        }
      },
      "score": {
        "method_id": "speg-index-scarcity-v1.0.0",
        "total": 13,
        "vector": [
          3,
          3,
          3,
          2,
          2
        ],
        "scale": "ordinal",
        "label": "Scarcity Durability Score",
        "meaning": "Ordinal research summary; not a probability, percentile, rank, or numerical valuation input."
      },
      "eligibility": {
        "eligible_for_inclusion": false,
        "dimension_floors": {
          "pass": false,
          "reason": "At least one dimension is unknown or below its floor."
        },
        "materiality": {
          "pass": false,
          "reason": "Company-level materiality is unassessable."
        },
        "decisive_confidence": {
          "pass": true,
          "reason": "Every decisive dimension is at least Moderate confidence."
        },
        "source_packet": {
          "pass": false,
          "reason": "Minimum admission packet is incomplete."
        },
        "current_review": {
          "pass": true,
          "reason": "Structural review is current at the research cutoff."
        },
        "material_event": {
          "pass": true,
          "reason": "No unresolved material eligibility event is recorded at the research cutoff."
        },
        "reason_codes": [
          "dimension_floors_failed",
          "materiality_failed",
          "source_packet_failed"
        ]
      },
      "decision": {
        "research_decision": "watchlist",
        "membership_state": null,
        "owner": "Mike Ye",
        "prepared_by": "Ella",
        "rationale": "13/20; watchlist\n\nQ2 release reports HBM4 mass shipments, approximately ten customer LTAs and capacity expansion; it attributes strong economics partly to memory-price increases. The Indiana project targets production in the second half of 2029. Samsung reports HBM4 sales and HBM4E sampling, an active rival response. [H1–H2, X2]\n\n**Judgment:** C3/S3 reflect qualified memory/packaging capability; E3 reflects operating capture rather than net-income windfalls; P2 reflects unresolved pricing and competition through renewals; D2 recognizes continued investment. The narrower HBM thesis cannot automatically cover all DRAM/NAND economics. Moderate confidence does not mean LTAs fix prices or margins.\n\n**Admission evidence needed:** contract coverage and resets, customer retention across generations, and retained economics after rival ramps/defense spending sufficient for P3. Next results or material qualification update/by December 16. Do not import the old internal symbol “SKH” as a verified current US security identifier; the issuer record and selected share class require separate verification before price/PEG ingestion.",
        "falsifiers": [
          "Rival qualification erodes allocation or economics",
          "Contract resets fail to retain price-cost benefit",
          "Required investment absorbs retained economics"
        ],
        "next_observation": "Verify contract coverage and resets, customer retention across generations, company materiality, and economics after rival ramps.",
        "due_date": "2026-12-16"
      },
      "review": {
        "as_of_cutoff": "2026-09-17",
        "reviewed_at": "2026-09-17T23:48:49Z",
        "source_dates": [
          "2026-07-29",
          "2026-08-28",
          "2026-07-30"
        ],
        "next_review_due": "2026-12-16",
        "event_status": "clear_at_research_cutoff",
        "publication_at": "2026-09-18T00:15:00Z",
        "effective_at": "2026-09-18T00:15:00Z"
      },
      "sensitivity": {
        "single_dimension_downgrade_pass": {
          "constraint": false,
          "substitution_resistance": false,
          "economic_capture": false,
          "persistence": false,
          "cost_of_defense": false
        },
        "binding_dimensions": [
          "constraint",
          "substitution_resistance",
          "economic_capture",
          "persistence",
          "cost_of_defense"
        ],
        "interpretation": "rule_sensitivity_not_confidence_interval"
      },
      "release": {
        "state": "released",
        "release_id": "speg-index-2026-09-17-v1",
        "predecessor_release_id": "speg-index-2026-09-17-rc1",
        "change_reasons": [
          "initial_membership_release",
          "freshness_and_material_event_review"
        ],
        "content_hash": "sha256:dd781d157b8ea937d6797ce3e6b29b04685993d631fda989e15bfb0b2eb5592a"
      },
      "valuation": {
        "peg_eligible": false,
        "peg": null,
        "peg_null_reason": "qualified_reference_path_not_assembled",
        "economic_profile_id": null,
        "economic_speg": null,
        "economic_speg_null_reason": "paired_valuation_uncalibrated",
        "sds_used_as_valuation_input": false
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "id": "X2",
      "publisher": "Samsung Electronics",
      "url": "https://news.samsung.com/global/samsung-electronics-announces-second-quarter-2026-results",
      "title": "Samsung Q2 results",
      "publication_date": "2026-07-30",
      "event_date": "2026-07-30",
      "reporting_period": "Q2 2026",
      "retrieval_date": "2026-09-17",
      "locator": "July 30, 2026; DS section",
      "origin_group": "samsung",
      "claim_type": "counterevidence",
      "factual_summary": "Rival foundry and HBM activity, engagements, and planned ramps.",
      "limitations": "Rival HBM/foundry activity; plans not equivalent qualified scale"
    },
    {
      "id": "H1",
      "publisher": "SK hynix",
      "url": "https://news.skhynix.com/en/q2-2026-business-results/",
      "title": "SK hynix Q2 results",
      "publication_date": "2026-07-29",
      "event_date": "2026-07-29",
      "reporting_period": "Q2 2026",
      "retrieval_date": "2026-09-17",
      "locator": "July 29, 2026; results/contracts/ramp",
      "origin_group": "sk-hynix",
      "claim_type": "reported_fact",
      "factual_summary": "Preliminary quarterly results, HBM shipments, contracts, and capacity plans.",
      "limitations": "Preliminary K-IFRS, current capture not guaranteed future rents"
    },
    {
      "id": "H2",
      "publisher": "SK hynix",
      "url": "https://news.skhynix.com/en/groundbreaking-ceremony-in-indiana/",
      "title": "SK hynix Indiana project",
      "publication_date": "2026-08-28",
      "event_date": "2026-08-28",
      "reporting_period": null,
      "retrieval_date": "2026-09-17",
      "locator": "August 28, 2026; timing/investment",
      "origin_group": "sk-hynix",
      "claim_type": "future_plan",
      "factual_summary": "A future Indiana investment and production-timing announcement.",
      "limitations": "Future construction/ramp, not today's qualified output"
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "research_owner": "Mike Ye",
    "prepared_by": "Ella",
    "source_count": 3,
    "source_origin_groups": [
      "samsung",
      "sk-hynix"
    ],
    "notes": "First released sPEG Index snapshot. Five profiles satisfy every admission gate and become members; five remain non-member watchlist research. SDS remains ordinal selection evidence, valuation remains null, and no return or portfolio-weight claim is made."
  },
  "links": {
    "self": "https://mcp.exmxc.ai/speg/index/v1",
    "methodology": "https://mcp.exmxc.ai/speg/index/v1/methodology",
    "schema": "https://mcp.exmxc.ai/schemas/speg-index-profile-v1",
    "release": "https://mcp.exmxc.ai/speg/index/v1/releases/speg-index-2026-09-17-v1",
    "public_hub": "https://www.exmxc.ai/speg-index",
    "public_methodology": "https://www.exmxc.ai/speg-methodology"
  }
}