{
  "product": "sPEG Index — durable scarcity selection with valuation context",
  "release_id": "speg-index-2026-09-17-v1",
  "release_state": "released",
  "method_id": "speg-index-scarcity-v1.0.0",
  "schema_version": "speg-index-profile-v1.0.0",
  "research_cutoff": "2026-09-17",
  "publication_at": "2026-09-18T00:15:00Z",
  "effective_at": "2026-09-18T00:15:00Z",
  "predecessor_release_id": "speg-index-2026-09-17-rc1",
  "content_hash": "sha256:dd781d157b8ea937d6797ce3e6b29b04685993d631fda989e15bfb0b2eb5592a",
  "membership_mutated": true,
  "coverage": {
    "candidate_count": 1,
    "include_recommendations": 0,
    "watchlist": 1,
    "insufficient_evidence": 0,
    "exclude": 0,
    "released_members": 0,
    "qualified_member_count": 0
  },
  "profiles": [
    {
      "identity": {
        "issuer_id": "micron",
        "stable_slug": "micron",
        "legal_name": "Micron Technology, Inc.",
        "display_name": "Micron",
        "securities": [],
        "pricing_identity_status": "not_assembled"
      },
      "scope": {
        "mechanism_id": "qualified-high-bandwidth-memory",
        "mechanism_family": "manufacturing_qualification",
        "customer_problem": "Supply qualified high-bandwidth memory through product transitions at required scale.",
        "business_perimeter": "HBM and related advanced-memory capability inside a broader DRAM and NAND portfolio.",
        "company_attribution_route": "not_established",
        "coverage": {
          "numerator": null,
          "denominator": null,
          "period": null,
          "qualitative_rationale": "Executed coverage, contract units, and the bridge from HBM to company-wide economics are incomplete."
        },
        "materiality_status": "unassessable",
        "materiality_rationale": "Executed coverage, contract units, and the bridge from HBM to company-wide economics are incomplete.",
        "dependencies": [
          "AI accelerator demand",
          "customer qualification",
          "memory pricing",
          "capital spending",
          "contract resets"
        ]
      },
      "dimensions": {
        "constraint": {
          "value": 3,
          "anchor_id": "C3",
          "reason": "Manufacturing and qualification barriers are meaningful for HBM.",
          "source_ids": [
            "M1",
            "M2",
            "H1",
            "X2"
          ],
          "counterevidence": [
            "Samsung and SK hynix document active rival progress; current tight-market economics cannot establish multi-cycle substitution resistance."
          ],
          "confidence": "Moderate",
          "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet contains traceable primary evidence and an external challenge, with visible limits on magnitude or duration.",
          "plausible_alternative_anchor": null
        },
        "substitution_resistance": {
          "value": 2,
          "anchor_id": "S2",
          "reason": "The packet does not establish resistance to qualified rival supply across the company perimeter.",
          "source_ids": [
            "M2",
            "H1",
            "X2"
          ],
          "counterevidence": [
            "Samsung and SK hynix document active rival progress; current tight-market economics cannot establish multi-cycle substitution resistance."
          ],
          "confidence": "Moderate",
          "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet contains traceable primary evidence and an external challenge, with visible limits on magnitude or duration.",
          "plausible_alternative_anchor": null
        },
        "economic_capture": {
          "value": 3,
          "anchor_id": "E3",
          "reason": "Current reported economics are strong, but present-cycle capture is not durable-retention evidence by itself.",
          "source_ids": [
            "M1",
            "M2"
          ],
          "counterevidence": [
            "Samsung and SK hynix document active rival progress; current tight-market economics cannot establish multi-cycle substitution resistance."
          ],
          "confidence": "Moderate",
          "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet contains traceable primary evidence and an external challenge, with visible limits on magnitude or duration.",
          "plausible_alternative_anchor": null
        },
        "persistence": {
          "value": 2,
          "anchor_id": "P2",
          "reason": "Contract and pricing evidence does not yet support the three-to-five-year case.",
          "source_ids": [
            "M2",
            "H1",
            "X2"
          ],
          "counterevidence": [
            "Samsung and SK hynix document active rival progress; current tight-market economics cannot establish multi-cycle substitution resistance."
          ],
          "confidence": "Moderate",
          "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet contains traceable primary evidence and an external challenge, with visible limits on magnitude or duration.",
          "plausible_alternative_anchor": null
        },
        "cost_of_defense": {
          "value": 2,
          "anchor_id": "D2",
          "reason": "Large capital commitments and deposit obligations make retained economics sensitive to full investment needs.",
          "source_ids": [
            "M2"
          ],
          "counterevidence": [
            "Samsung and SK hynix document active rival progress; current tight-market economics cannot establish multi-cycle substitution resistance."
          ],
          "confidence": "Moderate",
          "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet contains traceable primary evidence and an external challenge, with visible limits on magnitude or duration.",
          "plausible_alternative_anchor": null
        }
      },
      "score": {
        "method_id": "speg-index-scarcity-v1.0.0",
        "total": 12,
        "vector": [
          3,
          2,
          3,
          2,
          2
        ],
        "scale": "ordinal",
        "label": "Scarcity Durability Score",
        "meaning": "Ordinal research summary; not a probability, percentile, rank, or numerical valuation input."
      },
      "eligibility": {
        "eligible_for_inclusion": false,
        "dimension_floors": {
          "pass": false,
          "reason": "At least one dimension is unknown or below its floor."
        },
        "materiality": {
          "pass": false,
          "reason": "Company-level materiality is unassessable."
        },
        "decisive_confidence": {
          "pass": true,
          "reason": "Every decisive dimension is at least Moderate confidence."
        },
        "source_packet": {
          "pass": false,
          "reason": "Minimum admission packet is incomplete."
        },
        "current_review": {
          "pass": true,
          "reason": "Structural review is current at the research cutoff."
        },
        "material_event": {
          "pass": true,
          "reason": "No unresolved material eligibility event is recorded at the research cutoff."
        },
        "reason_codes": [
          "dimension_floors_failed",
          "materiality_failed",
          "source_packet_failed"
        ]
      },
      "decision": {
        "research_decision": "watchlist",
        "membership_state": null,
        "owner": "Mike Ye",
        "prepared_by": "Ella",
        "rationale": "12/20; watchlist\n\nThe June Q3 release and prepared remarks document strong current economics, strategic agreements, planned versus executed coverage, caps/floors and significant capital commitments. Refundable customer deposits are not free equity. Rival memory progress is documented by Samsung and SK hynix. [M1–M2, H1, X2]\n\n**Judgment:** C3/E3 for capability barriers and current capture; S2/P2 because the packet does not establish durable company-wide resistance to qualified rival supply through a three-to-five-year cycle; D2 for investment sensitivity. This is not a claim that all memory is a commodity. The earlier uncalibrated premium experiment is not evidence for a higher score.\n\n**Admission evidence needed:** executed coverage, reset economics, qualification/switching evidence and retention beyond the present tight market. Next review at new results/contract disclosure, and no later than December 16. Sustained pricing normalization without cost relief or increased required investment would weaken the case. Current June guidance is not fresh consensus; the unusual fiscal-week count remains relevant to future valuation.",
        "falsifiers": [
          "Pricing normalizes without cost relief",
          "Executed customer coverage proves weaker than planned coverage",
          "Required investment rises faster than retained benefit"
        ],
        "next_observation": "Verify executed coverage, resets, qualification and switching evidence, capital needs, and material company attribution.",
        "due_date": "2026-12-16"
      },
      "review": {
        "as_of_cutoff": "2026-09-17",
        "reviewed_at": "2026-09-17T23:48:49Z",
        "source_dates": [
          "2026-06-24",
          "2026-06-24",
          "2026-07-29",
          "2026-07-30"
        ],
        "next_review_due": "2026-12-16",
        "event_status": "clear_at_research_cutoff",
        "publication_at": "2026-09-18T00:15:00Z",
        "effective_at": "2026-09-18T00:15:00Z"
      },
      "sensitivity": {
        "single_dimension_downgrade_pass": {
          "constraint": false,
          "substitution_resistance": false,
          "economic_capture": false,
          "persistence": false,
          "cost_of_defense": false
        },
        "binding_dimensions": [
          "constraint",
          "substitution_resistance",
          "economic_capture",
          "persistence",
          "cost_of_defense"
        ],
        "interpretation": "rule_sensitivity_not_confidence_interval"
      },
      "release": {
        "state": "released",
        "release_id": "speg-index-2026-09-17-v1",
        "predecessor_release_id": "speg-index-2026-09-17-rc1",
        "change_reasons": [
          "initial_membership_release",
          "freshness_and_material_event_review"
        ],
        "content_hash": "sha256:dd781d157b8ea937d6797ce3e6b29b04685993d631fda989e15bfb0b2eb5592a"
      },
      "valuation": {
        "peg_eligible": false,
        "peg": null,
        "peg_null_reason": "qualified_reference_path_not_assembled",
        "economic_profile_id": null,
        "economic_speg": null,
        "economic_speg_null_reason": "paired_valuation_uncalibrated",
        "sds_used_as_valuation_input": false
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "id": "X2",
      "publisher": "Samsung Electronics",
      "url": "https://news.samsung.com/global/samsung-electronics-announces-second-quarter-2026-results",
      "title": "Samsung Q2 results",
      "publication_date": "2026-07-30",
      "event_date": "2026-07-30",
      "reporting_period": "Q2 2026",
      "retrieval_date": "2026-09-17",
      "locator": "July 30, 2026; DS section",
      "origin_group": "samsung",
      "claim_type": "counterevidence",
      "factual_summary": "Rival foundry and HBM activity, engagements, and planned ramps.",
      "limitations": "Rival HBM/foundry activity; plans not equivalent qualified scale"
    },
    {
      "id": "H1",
      "publisher": "SK hynix",
      "url": "https://news.skhynix.com/en/q2-2026-business-results/",
      "title": "SK hynix Q2 results",
      "publication_date": "2026-07-29",
      "event_date": "2026-07-29",
      "reporting_period": "Q2 2026",
      "retrieval_date": "2026-09-17",
      "locator": "July 29, 2026; results/contracts/ramp",
      "origin_group": "sk-hynix",
      "claim_type": "reported_fact",
      "factual_summary": "Preliminary quarterly results, HBM shipments, contracts, and capacity plans.",
      "limitations": "Preliminary K-IFRS, current capture not guaranteed future rents"
    },
    {
      "id": "M1",
      "publisher": "Micron Technology",
      "url": "https://investors.micron.com/news/press-release/2026/Micron-Technology-Inc--Reports-Record-Results-for-the-Third-Quarter-of-Fiscal-2026/default.aspx",
      "title": "Micron Q3 results",
      "publication_date": "2026-06-24",
      "event_date": "2026-06-24",
      "reporting_period": "Q3 FY2026",
      "retrieval_date": "2026-09-17",
      "locator": "June 24, 2026; reported results",
      "origin_group": "micron",
      "claim_type": "reported_fact",
      "factual_summary": "Quarterly reported results from the prior mechanism pilot.",
      "limitations": "Current reported quarter in prior pilot, not four-year consensus"
    },
    {
      "id": "M2",
      "publisher": "Micron Technology",
      "url": "https://s25.q4cdn.com/621799436/files/doc_financials/2026/q3/Q3-FY26-Prepared-Remarks.pdf",
      "title": "Micron prepared remarks",
      "publication_date": "2026-06-24",
      "event_date": "2026-06-24",
      "reporting_period": "Q3 FY2026",
      "retrieval_date": "2026-09-17",
      "locator": "June 24, 2026; SCAs/capex/deposits",
      "origin_group": "micron",
      "claim_type": "management_assertion",
      "factual_summary": "Prepared remarks on strategic agreements, planned capacity, capital spending, and deposits.",
      "limitations": "Management terms/plans; executed versus planned coverage"
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "research_owner": "Mike Ye",
    "prepared_by": "Ella",
    "source_count": 4,
    "source_origin_groups": [
      "micron",
      "samsung",
      "sk-hynix"
    ],
    "notes": "First released sPEG Index snapshot. Five profiles satisfy every admission gate and become members; five remain non-member watchlist research. SDS remains ordinal selection evidence, valuation remains null, and no return or portfolio-weight claim is made."
  },
  "links": {
    "self": "https://mcp.exmxc.ai/speg/index/v1",
    "methodology": "https://mcp.exmxc.ai/speg/index/v1/methodology",
    "schema": "https://mcp.exmxc.ai/schemas/speg-index-profile-v1",
    "release": "https://mcp.exmxc.ai/speg/index/v1/releases/speg-index-2026-09-17-v1",
    "public_hub": "https://www.exmxc.ai/speg-index",
    "public_methodology": "https://www.exmxc.ai/speg-methodology"
  }
}