{
  "product": "sPEG Index — durable scarcity selection with valuation context",
  "release_id": "speg-index-2026-09-17-v1",
  "release_state": "released",
  "method_id": "speg-index-scarcity-v1.0.0",
  "schema_version": "speg-index-profile-v1.0.0",
  "research_cutoff": "2026-09-17",
  "publication_at": "2026-09-18T00:15:00Z",
  "effective_at": "2026-09-18T00:15:00Z",
  "predecessor_release_id": "speg-index-2026-09-17-rc1",
  "content_hash": "sha256:dd781d157b8ea937d6797ce3e6b29b04685993d631fda989e15bfb0b2eb5592a",
  "membership_mutated": true,
  "coverage": {
    "candidate_count": 1,
    "include_recommendations": 1,
    "watchlist": 0,
    "insufficient_evidence": 0,
    "exclude": 0,
    "released_members": 1,
    "qualified_member_count": 1
  },
  "profiles": [
    {
      "identity": {
        "issuer_id": "cadence",
        "stable_slug": "cadence",
        "legal_name": "Cadence Design Systems, Inc.",
        "display_name": "Cadence",
        "securities": [],
        "pricing_identity_status": "not_assembled"
      },
      "scope": {
        "mechanism_id": "process-linked-electronic-design-workflows",
        "mechanism_family": "design_workflow",
        "customer_problem": "Design and verify increasingly complex semiconductors against qualified foundry processes.",
        "business_perimeter": "Integrated EDA and system-design workflows; acquired system-analysis activity is not automatically assigned core EDA scarcity.",
        "company_attribution_route": "integrated_capability",
        "coverage": {
          "numerator": null,
          "denominator": null,
          "period": null,
          "qualitative_rationale": "Core EDA is central across the company and supported by current operating and alliance evidence."
        },
        "materiality_status": "adequate",
        "materiality_rationale": "Core EDA is central across the company and supported by current operating and alliance evidence.",
        "dependencies": [
          "foundry process roadmaps",
          "semiconductor design intensity",
          "customer workflow renewal",
          "engineering talent"
        ]
      },
      "dimensions": {
        "constraint": {
          "value": 3,
          "anchor_id": "C3",
          "reason": "Process-linked design workflows are difficult to reproduce, but multiple qualified providers exist.",
          "source_ids": [
            "C1",
            "X1"
          ],
          "counterevidence": [
            "Foundry alliance materials document multiple qualified EDA providers and prevent a uniqueness claim."
          ],
          "confidence": "Moderate",
          "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet contains traceable primary evidence and an external challenge, with visible limits on magnitude or duration.",
          "plausible_alternative_anchor": null
        },
        "substitution_resistance": {
          "value": 3,
          "anchor_id": "S3",
          "reason": "Migration requires workflow rebuilding, validation, and foundry-linked qualification.",
          "source_ids": [
            "C1",
            "X1"
          ],
          "counterevidence": [
            "Foundry alliance materials document multiple qualified EDA providers and prevent a uniqueness claim."
          ],
          "confidence": "Moderate",
          "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet contains traceable primary evidence and an external challenge, with visible limits on magnitude or duration.",
          "plausible_alternative_anchor": null
        },
        "economic_capture": {
          "value": 3,
          "anchor_id": "E3",
          "reason": "Current earnings persist after substantial R&D, although acquisition and compensation effects require continued review.",
          "source_ids": [
            "C1"
          ],
          "counterevidence": [
            "Foundry alliance materials document multiple qualified EDA providers and prevent a uniqueness claim."
          ],
          "confidence": "Moderate",
          "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet contains traceable primary evidence and an external challenge, with visible limits on magnitude or duration.",
          "plausible_alternative_anchor": null
        },
        "persistence": {
          "value": 3,
          "anchor_id": "P3",
          "reason": "Recurring process integration supports a three-to-five-year case while process transitions remain a named risk.",
          "source_ids": [
            "C1",
            "X1"
          ],
          "counterevidence": [
            "Foundry alliance materials document multiple qualified EDA providers and prevent a uniqueness claim."
          ],
          "confidence": "Moderate",
          "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet contains traceable primary evidence and an external challenge, with visible limits on magnitude or duration.",
          "plausible_alternative_anchor": null
        },
        "cost_of_defense": {
          "value": 3,
          "anchor_id": "D3",
          "reason": "Material operating benefit remains after reported research spending and compensation costs.",
          "source_ids": [
            "C1"
          ],
          "counterevidence": [
            "Foundry alliance materials document multiple qualified EDA providers and prevent a uniqueness claim."
          ],
          "confidence": "Moderate",
          "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet contains traceable primary evidence and an external challenge, with visible limits on magnitude or duration.",
          "plausible_alternative_anchor": null
        }
      },
      "score": {
        "method_id": "speg-index-scarcity-v1.0.0",
        "total": 15,
        "vector": [
          3,
          3,
          3,
          3,
          3
        ],
        "scale": "ordinal",
        "label": "Scarcity Durability Score",
        "meaning": "Ordinal research summary; not a probability, percentile, rank, or numerical valuation input."
      },
      "eligibility": {
        "eligible_for_inclusion": true,
        "dimension_floors": {
          "pass": true,
          "reason": "C/S/E/P meet 3 and D meets 2."
        },
        "materiality": {
          "pass": true,
          "reason": "Company-level materiality route is documented."
        },
        "decisive_confidence": {
          "pass": true,
          "reason": "Every decisive dimension is at least Moderate confidence."
        },
        "source_packet": {
          "pass": true,
          "reason": "Minimum admission packet is present for the draft judgment."
        },
        "current_review": {
          "pass": true,
          "reason": "Structural review is current at the research cutoff."
        },
        "material_event": {
          "pass": true,
          "reason": "No unresolved material eligibility event is recorded at the research cutoff."
        },
        "reason_codes": []
      },
      "decision": {
        "research_decision": "include",
        "membership_state": "member",
        "owner": "Mike Ye",
        "prepared_by": "Ella",
        "rationale": "15/20; include\n\n**Perimeter:** integrated EDA and system-design workflows; qualitative company-level route. Acquired system-analysis activity is not automatically assigned core EDA scarcity.\n\n**Evidence:** Q2 revenue $1.584bn, GAAP operating margin 28.4% versus adjusted 45.5%, R&D $531.3m; core EDA grew 18%. TSMC's alliance documents design-flow collaboration and lists Cadence, Synopsys, Siemens and specialists. The extracted tables do not establish every product's certification status. [C1, X1]\n\n**Judgment:** C3/S3 for difficult-to-reproduce, process-linked workflows; E3/D3 for meaningful earnings after R&D and compensation costs; P3 for recurring process/design integration. The existence of qualified competitors prevents a uniqueness claim. Backlog is contractual visibility, not proof of five-year scarcity.\n\n**Review/removal trigger:** loss of relevance at major process transitions, material customer migration to competing flows, or deteriorating retained economics despite rising engineering spending. Next review at results or by December 16. Renewal pricing, actual switching costs and a fuller cash/SBC history remain missing. The same total as NVIDIA is not an assertion of identical economics.",
        "falsifiers": [
          "Loss of relevance at major process transitions",
          "Material customer migration to competing design flows",
          "Deteriorating retained economics despite rising engineering spending"
        ],
        "next_observation": "Obtain renewal-pricing, switching-cost, cash-flow, and stock-compensation evidence at the next results review.",
        "due_date": "2026-12-16"
      },
      "review": {
        "as_of_cutoff": "2026-09-17",
        "reviewed_at": "2026-09-17T23:48:49Z",
        "source_dates": [
          "2026-07-27",
          null
        ],
        "next_review_due": "2026-12-16",
        "event_status": "clear_at_research_cutoff",
        "publication_at": "2026-09-18T00:15:00Z",
        "effective_at": "2026-09-18T00:15:00Z"
      },
      "sensitivity": {
        "single_dimension_downgrade_pass": {
          "constraint": false,
          "substitution_resistance": false,
          "economic_capture": false,
          "persistence": false,
          "cost_of_defense": true
        },
        "binding_dimensions": [
          "constraint",
          "substitution_resistance",
          "economic_capture",
          "persistence"
        ],
        "interpretation": "rule_sensitivity_not_confidence_interval"
      },
      "release": {
        "state": "released",
        "release_id": "speg-index-2026-09-17-v1",
        "predecessor_release_id": "speg-index-2026-09-17-rc1",
        "change_reasons": [
          "initial_membership_release",
          "freshness_and_material_event_review"
        ],
        "content_hash": "sha256:dd781d157b8ea937d6797ce3e6b29b04685993d631fda989e15bfb0b2eb5592a"
      },
      "valuation": {
        "peg_eligible": false,
        "peg": null,
        "peg_null_reason": "qualified_reference_path_not_assembled",
        "economic_profile_id": null,
        "economic_speg": null,
        "economic_speg_null_reason": "paired_valuation_uncalibrated",
        "sds_used_as_valuation_input": false
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "id": "C1",
      "publisher": "Cadence Design Systems",
      "url": "https://investor.cadence.com/news/news-details/2026/Cadence-Reports-Second-Quarter-2026-Financial-Results/default.aspx",
      "title": "Cadence Q2 results",
      "publication_date": "2026-07-27",
      "event_date": "2026-07-27",
      "reporting_period": "Q2 2026",
      "retrieval_date": "2026-09-17",
      "locator": "July 27, 2026; results/reconciliation",
      "origin_group": "cadence",
      "claim_type": "reported_fact",
      "factual_summary": "Quarterly financial results, reconciliation, research spending, and core EDA growth.",
      "limitations": "GAAP, R&D, core versus acquired growth"
    },
    {
      "id": "X1",
      "publisher": "TSMC",
      "url": "https://www.tsmc.com/english/dedicatedFoundry/oip/eda_alliance",
      "title": "TSMC EDA Alliance",
      "publication_date": null,
      "event_date": null,
      "reporting_period": null,
      "retrieval_date": "2026-09-17",
      "locator": "Partner list April 22; certification tables July 10, 2026",
      "origin_group": "tsmc-eda-alliance",
      "claim_type": "counterevidence",
      "factual_summary": "Foundry alliance and certification materials showing workflow integration and multiple competing EDA providers.",
      "limitations": "External structural support and competing providers; no unobserved icon-level claims"
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "research_owner": "Mike Ye",
    "prepared_by": "Ella",
    "source_count": 2,
    "source_origin_groups": [
      "cadence",
      "tsmc-eda-alliance"
    ],
    "notes": "First released sPEG Index snapshot. Five profiles satisfy every admission gate and become members; five remain non-member watchlist research. SDS remains ordinal selection evidence, valuation remains null, and no return or portfolio-weight claim is made."
  },
  "links": {
    "self": "https://mcp.exmxc.ai/speg/index/v1",
    "methodology": "https://mcp.exmxc.ai/speg/index/v1/methodology",
    "schema": "https://mcp.exmxc.ai/schemas/speg-index-profile-v1",
    "release": "https://mcp.exmxc.ai/speg/index/v1/releases/speg-index-2026-09-17-v1",
    "public_hub": "https://www.exmxc.ai/speg-index",
    "public_methodology": "https://www.exmxc.ai/speg-methodology"
  }
}