{
  "product": "sPEG Index — durable scarcity selection with valuation context",
  "release_id": "speg-index-2026-09-17-v1",
  "release_state": "released",
  "method_id": "speg-index-scarcity-v1.0.0",
  "schema_version": "speg-index-profile-v1.0.0",
  "research_cutoff": "2026-09-17",
  "publication_at": "2026-09-18T00:15:00Z",
  "effective_at": "2026-09-18T00:15:00Z",
  "predecessor_release_id": "speg-index-2026-09-17-rc1",
  "content_hash": "sha256:dd781d157b8ea937d6797ce3e6b29b04685993d631fda989e15bfb0b2eb5592a",
  "membership_mutated": true,
  "coverage": {
    "candidate_count": 1,
    "include_recommendations": 1,
    "watchlist": 0,
    "insufficient_evidence": 0,
    "exclude": 0,
    "released_members": 1,
    "qualified_member_count": 1
  },
  "profiles": [
    {
      "identity": {
        "issuer_id": "asml",
        "stable_slug": "asml",
        "legal_name": "ASML Holding N.V.",
        "display_name": "ASML",
        "securities": [],
        "pricing_identity_status": "not_assembled"
      },
      "scope": {
        "mechanism_id": "advanced-lithography-ecosystem",
        "mechanism_family": "manufacturing_qualification",
        "customer_problem": "Pattern leading-edge semiconductor layers at production scale with qualified process support.",
        "business_perimeter": "Integrated advanced lithography, installed support, and process ecosystem; non-EUV products are not assumed equally scarce.",
        "company_attribution_route": "integrated_capability",
        "coverage": {
          "numerator": null,
          "denominator": null,
          "period": null,
          "qualitative_rationale": "The integrated capability is central to ASML's principal operating business; no unsupported EUV revenue percentage is used."
        },
        "materiality_status": "adequate",
        "materiality_rationale": "The integrated capability is central to ASML's principal operating business; no unsupported EUV revenue percentage is used.",
        "dependencies": [
          "leading-edge foundry investment",
          "customer process adoption",
          "specialized suppliers",
          "export permissions"
        ]
      },
      "dimensions": {
        "constraint": {
          "value": 4,
          "anchor_id": "C4",
          "reason": "Relevant EUV capability has no demonstrated equivalent and requires multi-stage technical and supplier replication.",
          "source_ids": [
            "A2",
            "A3",
            "A5"
          ],
          "counterevidence": [
            "Customer cost reservations and continued use of existing EUV constrain claims about universal or immediate High-NA adoption."
          ],
          "confidence": "Moderate",
          "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet contains traceable primary evidence and an external challenge, with visible limits on magnitude or duration.",
          "plausible_alternative_anchor": null
        },
        "substitution_resistance": {
          "value": 4,
          "anchor_id": "S4",
          "reason": "Replacement at the relevant layers requires substantial process redesign and qualification.",
          "source_ids": [
            "A2",
            "A3",
            "A5"
          ],
          "counterevidence": [
            "Customer cost reservations and continued use of existing EUV constrain claims about universal or immediate High-NA adoption."
          ],
          "confidence": "Moderate",
          "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet contains traceable primary evidence and an external challenge, with visible limits on magnitude or duration.",
          "plausible_alternative_anchor": null
        },
        "economic_capture": {
          "value": 3,
          "anchor_id": "E3",
          "reason": "Current operating earnings remain after substantial R&D, but the packet does not isolate a measured scarcity rent.",
          "source_ids": [
            "A1",
            "A4"
          ],
          "counterevidence": [
            "Customer cost reservations and continued use of existing EUV constrain claims about universal or immediate High-NA adoption."
          ],
          "confidence": "Moderate",
          "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet contains traceable primary evidence and an external challenge, with visible limits on magnitude or duration.",
          "plausible_alternative_anchor": null
        },
        "persistence": {
          "value": 3,
          "anchor_id": "P3",
          "reason": "A three-to-five-year path is credible; current evidence does not justify assuming universal High-NA adoption or permanence.",
          "source_ids": [
            "A3",
            "A5"
          ],
          "counterevidence": [
            "Customer cost reservations and continued use of existing EUV constrain claims about universal or immediate High-NA adoption."
          ],
          "confidence": "Moderate",
          "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet contains traceable primary evidence and an external challenge, with visible limits on magnitude or duration.",
          "plausible_alternative_anchor": null
        },
        "cost_of_defense": {
          "value": 3,
          "anchor_id": "D3",
          "reason": "Material benefit remains after engineering and support spending, with future capacity and support costs still uncertain.",
          "source_ids": [
            "A1",
            "A4"
          ],
          "counterevidence": [
            "Customer cost reservations and continued use of existing EUV constrain claims about universal or immediate High-NA adoption."
          ],
          "confidence": "Moderate",
          "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet contains traceable primary evidence and an external challenge, with visible limits on magnitude or duration.",
          "plausible_alternative_anchor": null
        }
      },
      "score": {
        "method_id": "speg-index-scarcity-v1.0.0",
        "total": 17,
        "vector": [
          4,
          4,
          3,
          3,
          3
        ],
        "scale": "ordinal",
        "label": "Scarcity Durability Score",
        "meaning": "Ordinal research summary; not a probability, percentile, rank, or numerical valuation input."
      },
      "eligibility": {
        "eligible_for_inclusion": true,
        "dimension_floors": {
          "pass": true,
          "reason": "C/S/E/P meet 3 and D meets 2."
        },
        "materiality": {
          "pass": true,
          "reason": "Company-level materiality route is documented."
        },
        "decisive_confidence": {
          "pass": true,
          "reason": "Every decisive dimension is at least Moderate confidence."
        },
        "source_packet": {
          "pass": true,
          "reason": "Minimum admission packet is present for the draft judgment."
        },
        "current_review": {
          "pass": true,
          "reason": "Structural review is current at the research cutoff."
        },
        "material_event": {
          "pass": true,
          "reason": "No unresolved material eligibility event is recorded at the research cutoff."
        },
        "reason_codes": []
      },
      "decision": {
        "research_decision": "include",
        "membership_state": "member",
        "owner": "Mike Ye",
        "prepared_by": "Ella",
        "rationale": "17/20; include\n\n**Perimeter:** integrated advanced lithography, installed support and process ecosystem. Company-level attribution uses the integrated-capability route; no unsupported EUV revenue percentage is assigned. Non-EUV products are not assumed equally scarce.\n\n**Evidence:** Q2 sales were €9.326bn, gross margin 54%, and installed-base management €2.762bn; that last category includes services and field options. The 2025 report shows €11.3bn operating income after €4.7bn R&D. Intel's September announcement documents High-NA use on selected production layers; it is a joint commercial origin, not independent validation of all adoption economics. [A1–A4]\n\n**Judgment:** C4/S4 reflect the specific EUV capability and the process changes needed to substitute; E3 reflects retained earnings, not a measured scarcity rent; P3 limits the claim to a defensible three-to-five-year path; D3 recognizes profit after substantial engineering while retaining uncertainty over future support and capacity spending. No claim that every customer must adopt High-NA now. Reuters reported TSMC cost reservations and continued use of existing EUV in May; that is dated customer counterevidence, not a current adoption schedule. [A5]\n\n**Review/removal trigger:** a commercially credible alternative for the relevant layers; customer process changes materially bypassing the capability; or sustained failure to retain economics after required development/support. Reassess adoption delays separately from a complete thesis failure. Next full review by December 16, or next results/material adoption news earlier. Quantified customer willingness to pay remains missing.",
        "falsifiers": [
          "A commercially credible equivalent for relevant production layers",
          "Customer process changes that materially bypass the capability",
          "Sustained failure to retain economics after required development and support"
        ],
        "next_observation": "Quantify customer willingness to pay and update adoption evidence after results or material customer news.",
        "due_date": "2026-12-16"
      },
      "review": {
        "as_of_cutoff": "2026-09-17",
        "reviewed_at": "2026-09-17T23:48:49Z",
        "source_dates": [
          "2026-07-15",
          null,
          "2026-09-08",
          null,
          "2026-05-19"
        ],
        "next_review_due": "2026-12-16",
        "event_status": "clear_at_research_cutoff",
        "publication_at": "2026-09-18T00:15:00Z",
        "effective_at": "2026-09-18T00:15:00Z"
      },
      "sensitivity": {
        "single_dimension_downgrade_pass": {
          "constraint": true,
          "substitution_resistance": true,
          "economic_capture": false,
          "persistence": false,
          "cost_of_defense": true
        },
        "binding_dimensions": [
          "economic_capture",
          "persistence"
        ],
        "interpretation": "rule_sensitivity_not_confidence_interval"
      },
      "release": {
        "state": "released",
        "release_id": "speg-index-2026-09-17-v1",
        "predecessor_release_id": "speg-index-2026-09-17-rc1",
        "change_reasons": [
          "initial_membership_release",
          "freshness_and_material_event_review"
        ],
        "content_hash": "sha256:dd781d157b8ea937d6797ce3e6b29b04685993d631fda989e15bfb0b2eb5592a"
      },
      "valuation": {
        "peg_eligible": false,
        "peg": null,
        "peg_null_reason": "qualified_reference_path_not_assembled",
        "economic_profile_id": null,
        "economic_speg": null,
        "economic_speg_null_reason": "paired_valuation_uncalibrated",
        "sds_used_as_valuation_input": false
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "id": "A1",
      "publisher": "ASML",
      "url": "https://www.asml.com/en/news/press-releases/2026/q2-2026-financial-results",
      "title": "ASML Q2 results",
      "publication_date": "2026-07-15",
      "event_date": "2026-07-15",
      "reporting_period": "Q2 2026",
      "retrieval_date": "2026-09-17",
      "locator": "July 15, 2026; results/CEO statement",
      "origin_group": "asml",
      "claim_type": "reported_fact",
      "factual_summary": "Quarterly results and management discussion of current sales, margins, and capacity plans.",
      "limitations": "Reported capture; planned capacity is not shipments"
    },
    {
      "id": "A2",
      "publisher": "ASML",
      "url": "https://www.asml.com/en/products/euv-lithography-systems",
      "title": "ASML EUV systems",
      "publication_date": null,
      "event_date": null,
      "reporting_period": null,
      "retrieval_date": "2026-09-17",
      "locator": "Undated; product description",
      "origin_group": "asml",
      "claim_type": "technical_description",
      "factual_summary": "Product description for ASML extreme-ultraviolet lithography systems.",
      "limitations": "Technical perimeter; not willingness-to-pay evidence"
    },
    {
      "id": "A3",
      "publisher": "Intel and ASML",
      "url": "https://www.intc.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1781/intel-foundry-and-asml-collaborate-to-accelerate-industry",
      "title": "Intel/ASML High-NA update",
      "publication_date": "2026-09-08",
      "event_date": "2026-09-08",
      "reporting_period": null,
      "retrieval_date": "2026-09-17",
      "locator": "September 8, 2026; production discussion",
      "origin_group": "intel-asml-joint",
      "claim_type": "management_assertion",
      "factual_summary": "Joint production update on Intel Foundry and ASML High-NA collaboration.",
      "limitations": "Joint commercial origin; selected layers, not universal adoption"
    },
    {
      "id": "A4",
      "publisher": "ASML",
      "url": "https://www.asml.com/en/investors/annual-report/2025",
      "title": "ASML 2025 annual report highlights",
      "publication_date": null,
      "event_date": null,
      "reporting_period": "FY2025",
      "retrieval_date": "2026-09-17",
      "locator": "FY2025; profitability/R&D",
      "origin_group": "asml",
      "claim_type": "reported_fact",
      "factual_summary": "Annual-report evidence on operating income and research and development spending.",
      "limitations": "Earnings after engineering; not full maintenance-capex attribution"
    },
    {
      "id": "A5",
      "publisher": "Reuters",
      "url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/asml-says-first-chips-new-high-na-machines-arrive-months-2026-05-19/",
      "title": "Reuters customer-adoption report",
      "publication_date": "2026-05-19",
      "event_date": "2026-05-19",
      "reporting_period": null,
      "retrieval_date": "2026-09-17",
      "locator": "May 19, 2026; TSMC comments",
      "origin_group": "reuters-asml-adoption",
      "claim_type": "counterevidence",
      "factual_summary": "External reporting of customer cost reservations and adoption timing for High-NA systems.",
      "limitations": "External reporting of customer cost reservations; dated, not a September plan"
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "research_owner": "Mike Ye",
    "prepared_by": "Ella",
    "source_count": 5,
    "source_origin_groups": [
      "asml",
      "intel-asml-joint",
      "reuters-asml-adoption"
    ],
    "notes": "First released sPEG Index snapshot. Five profiles satisfy every admission gate and become members; five remain non-member watchlist research. SDS remains ordinal selection evidence, valuation remains null, and no return or portfolio-weight claim is made."
  },
  "links": {
    "self": "https://mcp.exmxc.ai/speg/index/v1",
    "methodology": "https://mcp.exmxc.ai/speg/index/v1/methodology",
    "schema": "https://mcp.exmxc.ai/schemas/speg-index-profile-v1",
    "release": "https://mcp.exmxc.ai/speg/index/v1/releases/speg-index-2026-09-17-v1",
    "public_hub": "https://www.exmxc.ai/speg-index",
    "public_methodology": "https://www.exmxc.ai/speg-methodology"
  }
}