{
  "product": "sPEG Index — durable scarcity selection with valuation context",
  "release_id": "speg-index-2026-09-17-v1",
  "release_state": "released",
  "method_id": "speg-index-scarcity-v1.0.0",
  "schema_version": "speg-index-profile-v1.0.0",
  "research_cutoff": "2026-09-17",
  "publication_at": "2026-09-18T00:15:00Z",
  "effective_at": "2026-09-18T00:15:00Z",
  "predecessor_release_id": "speg-index-2026-09-17-rc1",
  "content_hash": "sha256:dd781d157b8ea937d6797ce3e6b29b04685993d631fda989e15bfb0b2eb5592a",
  "membership_mutated": true,
  "coverage": {
    "candidate_count": 1,
    "include_recommendations": 0,
    "watchlist": 1,
    "insufficient_evidence": 0,
    "exclude": 0,
    "released_members": 0,
    "qualified_member_count": 0
  },
  "profiles": [
    {
      "identity": {
        "issuer_id": "arista",
        "stable_slug": "arista",
        "legal_name": "Arista Networks, Inc.",
        "display_name": "Arista",
        "securities": [],
        "pricing_identity_status": "not_assembled"
      },
      "scope": {
        "mechanism_id": "cloud-network-operating-stack",
        "mechanism_family": "systems_service",
        "customer_problem": "Operate high-performance data-center networks consistently across large deployments.",
        "business_perimeter": "Ethernet switching systems, EOS software, and support for cloud and AI data-center networks.",
        "company_attribution_route": "integrated_capability",
        "coverage": {
          "numerator": null,
          "denominator": null,
          "period": null,
          "qualitative_rationale": "The integrated network operating stack is central to the company, while customer and supplier concentration remain explicit dependencies."
        },
        "materiality_status": "adequate",
        "materiality_rationale": "The integrated network operating stack is central to the company, while customer and supplier concentration remain explicit dependencies.",
        "dependencies": [
          "large cloud customers",
          "merchant silicon",
          "network standards",
          "support renewal"
        ]
      },
      "dimensions": {
        "constraint": {
          "value": 2,
          "anchor_id": "C2",
          "reason": "Technical integration exists, but qualified systems and disaggregated alternatives keep feasible supply broader than C3.",
          "source_ids": [
            "R1",
            "R2"
          ],
          "counterevidence": [
            "Open standards, disaggregation, SONiC, and rival systems provide real customer alternatives."
          ],
          "confidence": "Low",
          "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet supports a tentative judgment but leaves an admission-critical company-level premise unresolved.",
          "plausible_alternative_anchor": 1
        },
        "substitution_resistance": {
          "value": 3,
          "anchor_id": "S3",
          "reason": "Operational consistency and installed workflows create material switching work.",
          "source_ids": [
            "R2"
          ],
          "counterevidence": [
            "Open standards, disaggregation, SONiC, and rival systems provide real customer alternatives."
          ],
          "confidence": "Moderate",
          "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet contains traceable primary evidence and an external challenge, with visible limits on magnitude or duration.",
          "plausible_alternative_anchor": null
        },
        "economic_capture": {
          "value": 3,
          "anchor_id": "E3",
          "reason": "Reported margins show current retention, without proving the portion caused by durable scarcity.",
          "source_ids": [
            "R1"
          ],
          "counterevidence": [
            "Open standards, disaggregation, SONiC, and rival systems provide real customer alternatives."
          ],
          "confidence": "Moderate",
          "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet contains traceable primary evidence and an external challenge, with visible limits on magnitude or duration.",
          "plausible_alternative_anchor": null
        },
        "persistence": {
          "value": 2,
          "anchor_id": "P2",
          "reason": "Customer alternatives and concentration leave the three-to-five-year rent-retention case unresolved.",
          "source_ids": [
            "R1",
            "R2"
          ],
          "counterevidence": [
            "Open standards, disaggregation, SONiC, and rival systems provide real customer alternatives."
          ],
          "confidence": "Low",
          "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet supports a tentative judgment but leaves an admission-critical company-level premise unresolved.",
          "plausible_alternative_anchor": 1
        },
        "cost_of_defense": {
          "value": 3,
          "anchor_id": "D3",
          "reason": "Current retained economics remain material after operating investment.",
          "source_ids": [
            "R1"
          ],
          "counterevidence": [
            "Open standards, disaggregation, SONiC, and rival systems provide real customer alternatives."
          ],
          "confidence": "Moderate",
          "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet contains traceable primary evidence and an external challenge, with visible limits on magnitude or duration.",
          "plausible_alternative_anchor": null
        }
      },
      "score": {
        "method_id": "speg-index-scarcity-v1.0.0",
        "total": 13,
        "vector": [
          2,
          3,
          3,
          2,
          3
        ],
        "scale": "ordinal",
        "label": "Scarcity Durability Score",
        "meaning": "Ordinal research summary; not a probability, percentile, rank, or numerical valuation input."
      },
      "eligibility": {
        "eligible_for_inclusion": false,
        "dimension_floors": {
          "pass": false,
          "reason": "At least one dimension is unknown or below its floor."
        },
        "materiality": {
          "pass": true,
          "reason": "Company-level materiality route is documented."
        },
        "decisive_confidence": {
          "pass": false,
          "reason": "At least one decisive dimension is below Moderate confidence."
        },
        "source_packet": {
          "pass": false,
          "reason": "Minimum admission packet is incomplete."
        },
        "current_review": {
          "pass": true,
          "reason": "Structural review is current at the research cutoff."
        },
        "material_event": {
          "pass": true,
          "reason": "No unresolved material eligibility event is recorded at the research cutoff."
        },
        "reason_codes": [
          "dimension_floors_failed",
          "decisive_confidence_failed",
          "source_packet_failed"
        ]
      },
      "decision": {
        "research_decision": "watchlist",
        "membership_state": null,
        "owner": "Mike Ye",
        "prepared_by": "Ella",
        "rationale": "13/20; watchlist\n\nQ2 revenue was $3.036bn and GAAP operating margin 45.4%. Its release identifies large-customer concentration, merchant-silicon dependence and competition. EOS documents operational consistency, but also open standards, disaggregation and customer alternatives including SONiC. [R1–R2]\n\n**Judgment:** S3/E3/D3 reflect integration and retained economics; C2/P2 reflect unresolved limits on customer alternatives and durable rent retention. Low confidence applies to the broad scarcity claim, not to the reported margin. A component shortage may hurt delivery rather than enrich Arista.\n\n**Admission evidence needed:** external customer evidence of switching/qualification costs and retention through rival offerings, with a credible three-to-five-year path. Next review at results or by December 16. Material customer migration, lower support renewals or supplier capture would weaken the thesis.",
        "falsifiers": [
          "Material customer migration",
          "Lower support renewal economics",
          "Supplier capture of the economic benefit"
        ],
        "next_observation": "Obtain external customer evidence on migration cost and retention through rival offerings.",
        "due_date": "2026-12-16"
      },
      "review": {
        "as_of_cutoff": "2026-09-17",
        "reviewed_at": "2026-09-17T23:48:49Z",
        "source_dates": [
          "2026-08-04",
          null
        ],
        "next_review_due": "2026-12-16",
        "event_status": "clear_at_research_cutoff",
        "publication_at": "2026-09-18T00:15:00Z",
        "effective_at": "2026-09-18T00:15:00Z"
      },
      "sensitivity": {
        "single_dimension_downgrade_pass": {
          "constraint": false,
          "substitution_resistance": false,
          "economic_capture": false,
          "persistence": false,
          "cost_of_defense": false
        },
        "binding_dimensions": [
          "constraint",
          "substitution_resistance",
          "economic_capture",
          "persistence",
          "cost_of_defense"
        ],
        "interpretation": "rule_sensitivity_not_confidence_interval"
      },
      "release": {
        "state": "released",
        "release_id": "speg-index-2026-09-17-v1",
        "predecessor_release_id": "speg-index-2026-09-17-rc1",
        "change_reasons": [
          "initial_membership_release",
          "freshness_and_material_event_review"
        ],
        "content_hash": "sha256:dd781d157b8ea937d6797ce3e6b29b04685993d631fda989e15bfb0b2eb5592a"
      },
      "valuation": {
        "peg_eligible": false,
        "peg": null,
        "peg_null_reason": "qualified_reference_path_not_assembled",
        "economic_profile_id": null,
        "economic_speg": null,
        "economic_speg_null_reason": "paired_valuation_uncalibrated",
        "sds_used_as_valuation_input": false
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "id": "R1",
      "publisher": "Arista Networks",
      "url": "https://www.arista.com/company/news/press-release/24401-pr-20260804",
      "title": "Arista Q2 results",
      "publication_date": "2026-08-04",
      "event_date": "2026-08-04",
      "reporting_period": "Q2 2026",
      "retrieval_date": "2026-09-17",
      "locator": "August 4, 2026; results/risks",
      "origin_group": "arista",
      "claim_type": "reported_fact",
      "factual_summary": "Quarterly results and disclosed customer, supplier, and competitive risks.",
      "limitations": "Margin plus customer/supplier/competition risks"
    },
    {
      "id": "R2",
      "publisher": "Arista Networks",
      "url": "https://www.arista.com/en/products/eos",
      "title": "Arista EOS",
      "publication_date": null,
      "event_date": null,
      "reporting_period": null,
      "retrieval_date": "2026-09-17",
      "locator": "Undated; architecture/open choices",
      "origin_group": "arista",
      "claim_type": "counterevidence",
      "factual_summary": "EOS architecture materials that describe integration alongside open standards and customer alternatives.",
      "limitations": "Integration and countervailing interoperability"
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "research_owner": "Mike Ye",
    "prepared_by": "Ella",
    "source_count": 2,
    "source_origin_groups": [
      "arista"
    ],
    "notes": "First released sPEG Index snapshot. Five profiles satisfy every admission gate and become members; five remain non-member watchlist research. SDS remains ordinal selection evidence, valuation remains null, and no return or portfolio-weight claim is made."
  },
  "links": {
    "self": "https://mcp.exmxc.ai/speg/index/v1",
    "methodology": "https://mcp.exmxc.ai/speg/index/v1/methodology",
    "schema": "https://mcp.exmxc.ai/schemas/speg-index-profile-v1",
    "release": "https://mcp.exmxc.ai/speg/index/v1/releases/speg-index-2026-09-17-v1",
    "public_hub": "https://www.exmxc.ai/speg-index",
    "public_methodology": "https://www.exmxc.ai/speg-methodology"
  }
}