{
  "product": "sPEG Index — durable scarcity selection with valuation context",
  "release_id": "speg-index-2026-09-17-v1",
  "release_state": "released",
  "method_id": "speg-index-scarcity-v1.0.0",
  "schema_version": "speg-index-profile-v1.0.0",
  "research_cutoff": "2026-09-17",
  "publication_at": "2026-09-18T00:15:00Z",
  "effective_at": "2026-09-18T00:15:00Z",
  "predecessor_release_id": "speg-index-2026-09-17-rc1",
  "content_hash": "sha256:dd781d157b8ea937d6797ce3e6b29b04685993d631fda989e15bfb0b2eb5592a",
  "membership_mutated": true,
  "coverage": {
    "candidate_count": 1,
    "include_recommendations": 0,
    "watchlist": 1,
    "insufficient_evidence": 0,
    "exclude": 0,
    "released_members": 0,
    "qualified_member_count": 0
  },
  "profiles": [
    {
      "identity": {
        "issuer_id": "analog-devices",
        "stable_slug": "analog-devices",
        "legal_name": "Analog Devices, Inc.",
        "display_name": "Analog Devices",
        "securities": [],
        "pricing_identity_status": "not_assembled"
      },
      "scope": {
        "mechanism_id": "long-life-signal-chain-components",
        "mechanism_family": "embedded_component",
        "customer_problem": "Maintain qualified signal-chain performance over long industrial and automotive product lives.",
        "business_perimeter": "Demanding signal-chain applications inside a broader industrial and automotive portfolio.",
        "company_attribution_route": "not_established",
        "coverage": {
          "numerator": null,
          "denominator": null,
          "period": null,
          "qualitative_rationale": "The packet does not establish which scarce applications represent a material company perimeter."
        },
        "materiality_status": "unassessable",
        "materiality_rationale": "The packet does not establish which scarce applications represent a material company perimeter.",
        "dependencies": [
          "industrial and automotive design cycles",
          "customer requalification behavior",
          "manufacturing continuity",
          "portfolio integration"
        ]
      },
      "dimensions": {
        "constraint": {
          "value": 2,
          "anchor_id": "C2",
          "reason": "Qualified alternatives appear credible across too much of the portfolio to support C3 company-wide.",
          "source_ids": [
            "D2",
            "D3",
            "D4"
          ],
          "counterevidence": [
            "Texas Instruments also supports long product lives, limiting the inference that continuity alone is a unique constraint."
          ],
          "confidence": "Low",
          "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet supports a tentative judgment but leaves an admission-critical company-level premise unresolved.",
          "plausible_alternative_anchor": 1
        },
        "substitution_resistance": {
          "value": 3,
          "anchor_id": "S3",
          "reason": "Embedded designs can impose material requalification work, although application-level evidence is incomplete.",
          "source_ids": [
            "D2",
            "D3"
          ],
          "counterevidence": [
            "Texas Instruments also supports long product lives, limiting the inference that continuity alone is a unique constraint."
          ],
          "confidence": "Moderate",
          "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet contains traceable primary evidence and an external challenge, with visible limits on magnitude or duration.",
          "plausible_alternative_anchor": null
        },
        "economic_capture": {
          "value": 3,
          "anchor_id": "E3",
          "reason": "Current operating and cash economics are positive across periods; scarcity attribution remains incomplete.",
          "source_ids": [
            "D1"
          ],
          "counterevidence": [
            "Texas Instruments also supports long product lives, limiting the inference that continuity alone is a unique constraint."
          ],
          "confidence": "Moderate",
          "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet contains traceable primary evidence and an external challenge, with visible limits on magnitude or duration.",
          "plausible_alternative_anchor": null
        },
        "persistence": {
          "value": 3,
          "anchor_id": "P3",
          "reason": "Long product lives support persistence in selected designs, but the scarce perimeter is not established.",
          "source_ids": [
            "D2",
            "D3",
            "D4"
          ],
          "counterevidence": [
            "Texas Instruments also supports long product lives, limiting the inference that continuity alone is a unique constraint."
          ],
          "confidence": "Moderate",
          "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet contains traceable primary evidence and an external challenge, with visible limits on magnitude or duration.",
          "plausible_alternative_anchor": null
        },
        "cost_of_defense": {
          "value": 3,
          "anchor_id": "D3",
          "reason": "Reported economics remain after capital spending, without a complete split between growth and defense.",
          "source_ids": [
            "D1"
          ],
          "counterevidence": [
            "Texas Instruments also supports long product lives, limiting the inference that continuity alone is a unique constraint."
          ],
          "confidence": "Moderate",
          "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet contains traceable primary evidence and an external challenge, with visible limits on magnitude or duration.",
          "plausible_alternative_anchor": null
        }
      },
      "score": {
        "method_id": "speg-index-scarcity-v1.0.0",
        "total": 14,
        "vector": [
          2,
          3,
          3,
          3,
          3
        ],
        "scale": "ordinal",
        "label": "Scarcity Durability Score",
        "meaning": "Ordinal research summary; not a probability, percentile, rank, or numerical valuation input."
      },
      "eligibility": {
        "eligible_for_inclusion": false,
        "dimension_floors": {
          "pass": false,
          "reason": "At least one dimension is unknown or below its floor."
        },
        "materiality": {
          "pass": false,
          "reason": "Company-level materiality is unassessable."
        },
        "decisive_confidence": {
          "pass": false,
          "reason": "At least one decisive dimension is below Moderate confidence."
        },
        "source_packet": {
          "pass": false,
          "reason": "Minimum admission packet is incomplete."
        },
        "current_review": {
          "pass": true,
          "reason": "Structural review is current at the research cutoff."
        },
        "material_event": {
          "pass": false,
          "reason": "A material perimeter or eligibility event remains unresolved."
        },
        "reason_codes": [
          "dimension_floors_failed",
          "materiality_failed",
          "decisive_confidence_failed",
          "source_packet_failed",
          "material_event_failed"
        ]
      },
      "decision": {
        "research_decision": "watchlist",
        "membership_state": null,
        "owner": "Mike Ye",
        "prepared_by": "Ella",
        "rationale": "14/20; watchlist\n\nQ3 FY2026 revenue was $4.022bn with GAAP operating margin 40.1%; trailing company-defined FCF was $4.937bn after $607.8m capex. ADI describes long product lives and discontinuation notice. TI also describes long product lives, so continuity alone is not unique. [D1–D3]\n\n**Judgment:** S3/E3/P3/D3 recognize embedded design continuity and retained economics. C2 and Low confidence in whole-company scarcity prevent admission despite total 14. Industrial and automotive categories cannot be labeled entirely scarce. The September 9 announced Alif acquisition is an additional perimeter-review item, not credited as an established capability. [D4]\n\n**Admission evidence needed:** identify demanding signal-chain applications, qualified substitutes and requalification burdens, then demonstrate material company exposure. Review after that packet or at next results/by December 16. Commodity-like replacement or deterioration after normal cycle adjustment would weaken the case further.",
        "falsifiers": [
          "Commodity-like replacement across claimed applications",
          "Cycle-normalized economics deteriorate despite normal defense spending",
          "The acquisition changes the relevant perimeter without a completed review"
        ],
        "next_observation": "Identify demanding applications, qualified substitutes, requalification burdens, and their material company exposure.",
        "due_date": "2026-12-16"
      },
      "review": {
        "as_of_cutoff": "2026-09-17",
        "reviewed_at": "2026-09-17T23:48:49Z",
        "source_dates": [
          "2026-08-19",
          null,
          null,
          "2026-09-09"
        ],
        "next_review_due": "2026-12-16",
        "event_status": "review_open",
        "publication_at": "2026-09-18T00:15:00Z",
        "effective_at": "2026-09-18T00:15:00Z"
      },
      "sensitivity": {
        "single_dimension_downgrade_pass": {
          "constraint": false,
          "substitution_resistance": false,
          "economic_capture": false,
          "persistence": false,
          "cost_of_defense": false
        },
        "binding_dimensions": [
          "constraint",
          "substitution_resistance",
          "economic_capture",
          "persistence",
          "cost_of_defense"
        ],
        "interpretation": "rule_sensitivity_not_confidence_interval"
      },
      "release": {
        "state": "released",
        "release_id": "speg-index-2026-09-17-v1",
        "predecessor_release_id": "speg-index-2026-09-17-rc1",
        "change_reasons": [
          "initial_membership_release",
          "freshness_and_material_event_review"
        ],
        "content_hash": "sha256:dd781d157b8ea937d6797ce3e6b29b04685993d631fda989e15bfb0b2eb5592a"
      },
      "valuation": {
        "peg_eligible": false,
        "peg": null,
        "peg_null_reason": "qualified_reference_path_not_assembled",
        "economic_profile_id": null,
        "economic_speg": null,
        "economic_speg_null_reason": "paired_valuation_uncalibrated",
        "sds_used_as_valuation_input": false
      }
    }
  ],
  "sources": [
    {
      "id": "D1",
      "publisher": "Analog Devices",
      "url": "https://investor.analog.com/news-releases/news-release-details/analog-devices-reports-record-fiscal-third-quarter-2026",
      "title": "ADI Q3 results",
      "publication_date": "2026-08-19",
      "event_date": "2026-08-19",
      "reporting_period": "Q3 FY2026",
      "retrieval_date": "2026-09-17",
      "locator": "August 19, 2026; financial tables",
      "origin_group": "analog-devices",
      "claim_type": "reported_fact",
      "factual_summary": "Quarterly financial results and company-defined free cash flow.",
      "limitations": "Reported capture, company-defined FCF"
    },
    {
      "id": "D2",
      "publisher": "Analog Devices",
      "url": "https://www.analog.com/en/support/product-life-cycle-information.html",
      "title": "ADI lifecycle policy",
      "publication_date": null,
      "event_date": null,
      "reporting_period": null,
      "retrieval_date": "2026-09-17",
      "locator": "Undated; lifecycle support",
      "origin_group": "analog-devices",
      "claim_type": "management_assertion",
      "factual_summary": "Issuer product-life-cycle and continuity policy.",
      "limitations": "Issuer continuity policy, not observed switching cost"
    },
    {
      "id": "D3",
      "publisher": "Texas Instruments",
      "url": "https://www.ti.com/quality-reliability/quality/product-life-cycle.html",
      "title": "TI lifecycle policy",
      "publication_date": null,
      "event_date": null,
      "reporting_period": null,
      "retrieval_date": "2026-09-17",
      "locator": "Undated; lifecycle",
      "origin_group": "texas-instruments",
      "claim_type": "counterevidence",
      "factual_summary": "A rival product-life-cycle policy that limits a uniqueness inference from long product lives.",
      "limitations": "Rival continuity counters uniqueness inference"
    },
    {
      "id": "D4",
      "publisher": "Analog Devices",
      "url": "https://investor.analog.com/",
      "title": "ADI investor news",
      "publication_date": "2026-09-09",
      "event_date": "2026-09-09",
      "reporting_period": null,
      "retrieval_date": "2026-09-17",
      "locator": "September 9, 2026 acquisition headline",
      "origin_group": "analog-devices",
      "claim_type": "future_plan",
      "factual_summary": "An acquisition announcement requiring a future perimeter review.",
      "limitations": "Event flag only; no deal economics incorporated"
    }
  ],
  "provenance": {
    "research_owner": "Mike Ye",
    "prepared_by": "Ella",
    "source_count": 4,
    "source_origin_groups": [
      "analog-devices",
      "texas-instruments"
    ],
    "notes": "First released sPEG Index snapshot. Five profiles satisfy every admission gate and become members; five remain non-member watchlist research. SDS remains ordinal selection evidence, valuation remains null, and no return or portfolio-weight claim is made."
  },
  "links": {
    "self": "https://mcp.exmxc.ai/speg/index/v1",
    "methodology": "https://mcp.exmxc.ai/speg/index/v1/methodology",
    "schema": "https://mcp.exmxc.ai/schemas/speg-index-profile-v1",
    "release": "https://mcp.exmxc.ai/speg/index/v1/releases/speg-index-2026-09-17-v1",
    "public_hub": "https://www.exmxc.ai/speg-index",
    "public_methodology": "https://www.exmxc.ai/speg-methodology"
  }
}