{ "product": "sPEG Index — durable scarcity selection with valuation context", "release_id": "speg-index-2026-09-17-v1", "release_state": "released", "method_id": "speg-index-scarcity-v1.0.0", "schema_version": "speg-index-profile-v1.0.0", "research_cutoff": "2026-09-17", "publication_at": "2026-09-18T00:15:00Z", "effective_at": "2026-09-18T00:15:00Z", "predecessor_release_id": "speg-index-2026-09-17-rc1", "content_hash": "sha256:dd781d157b8ea937d6797ce3e6b29b04685993d631fda989e15bfb0b2eb5592a", "membership_mutated": true, "coverage": { "candidate_count": 10, "include_recommendations": 5, "watchlist": 5, "insufficient_evidence": 0, "exclude": 0, "released_members": 5, "qualified_member_count": 5 }, "profiles": [ { "identity": { "issuer_id": "asml", "stable_slug": "asml", "legal_name": "ASML Holding N.V.", "display_name": "ASML", "securities": [], "pricing_identity_status": "not_assembled" }, "scope": { "mechanism_id": "advanced-lithography-ecosystem", "mechanism_family": "manufacturing_qualification", "customer_problem": "Pattern leading-edge semiconductor layers at production scale with qualified process support.", "business_perimeter": "Integrated advanced lithography, installed support, and process ecosystem; non-EUV products are not assumed equally scarce.", "company_attribution_route": "integrated_capability", "coverage": { "numerator": null, "denominator": null, "period": null, "qualitative_rationale": "The integrated capability is central to ASML's principal operating business; no unsupported EUV revenue percentage is used." }, "materiality_status": "adequate", "materiality_rationale": "The integrated capability is central to ASML's principal operating business; no unsupported EUV revenue percentage is used.", "dependencies": [ "leading-edge foundry investment", "customer process adoption", "specialized suppliers", "export permissions" ] }, "dimensions": { "constraint": { "value": 4, "anchor_id": "C4", "reason": "Relevant EUV capability has no demonstrated equivalent and requires multi-stage technical and supplier replication.", "source_ids": [ "A2", "A3", "A5" ], "counterevidence": [ "Customer cost reservations and continued use of existing EUV constrain claims about universal or immediate High-NA adoption." ], "confidence": "Moderate", "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet contains traceable primary evidence and an external challenge, with visible limits on magnitude or duration.", "plausible_alternative_anchor": null }, "substitution_resistance": { "value": 4, "anchor_id": "S4", "reason": "Replacement at the relevant layers requires substantial process redesign and qualification.", "source_ids": [ "A2", "A3", "A5" ], "counterevidence": [ "Customer cost reservations and continued use of existing EUV constrain claims about universal or immediate High-NA adoption." ], "confidence": "Moderate", "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet contains traceable primary evidence and an external challenge, with visible limits on magnitude or duration.", "plausible_alternative_anchor": null }, "economic_capture": { "value": 3, "anchor_id": "E3", "reason": "Current operating earnings remain after substantial R&D, but the packet does not isolate a measured scarcity rent.", "source_ids": [ "A1", "A4" ], "counterevidence": [ "Customer cost reservations and continued use of existing EUV constrain claims about universal or immediate High-NA adoption." ], "confidence": "Moderate", "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet contains traceable primary evidence and an external challenge, with visible limits on magnitude or duration.", "plausible_alternative_anchor": null }, "persistence": { "value": 3, "anchor_id": "P3", "reason": "A three-to-five-year path is credible; current evidence does not justify assuming universal High-NA adoption or permanence.", "source_ids": [ "A3", "A5" ], "counterevidence": [ "Customer cost reservations and continued use of existing EUV constrain claims about universal or immediate High-NA adoption." ], "confidence": "Moderate", "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet contains traceable primary evidence and an external challenge, with visible limits on magnitude or duration.", "plausible_alternative_anchor": null }, "cost_of_defense": { "value": 3, "anchor_id": "D3", "reason": "Material benefit remains after engineering and support spending, with future capacity and support costs still uncertain.", "source_ids": [ "A1", "A4" ], "counterevidence": [ "Customer cost reservations and continued use of existing EUV constrain claims about universal or immediate High-NA adoption." ], "confidence": "Moderate", "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet contains traceable primary evidence and an external challenge, with visible limits on magnitude or duration.", "plausible_alternative_anchor": null } }, "score": { "method_id": "speg-index-scarcity-v1.0.0", "total": 17, "vector": [ 4, 4, 3, 3, 3 ], "scale": "ordinal", "label": "Scarcity Durability Score", "meaning": "Ordinal research summary; not a probability, percentile, rank, or numerical valuation input." }, "eligibility": { "eligible_for_inclusion": true, "dimension_floors": { "pass": true, "reason": "C/S/E/P meet 3 and D meets 2." }, "materiality": { "pass": true, "reason": "Company-level materiality route is documented." }, "decisive_confidence": { "pass": true, "reason": "Every decisive dimension is at least Moderate confidence." }, "source_packet": { "pass": true, "reason": "Minimum admission packet is present for the draft judgment." }, "current_review": { "pass": true, "reason": "Structural review is current at the research cutoff." }, "material_event": { "pass": true, "reason": "No unresolved material eligibility event is recorded at the research cutoff." }, "reason_codes": [] }, "decision": { "research_decision": "include", "membership_state": "member", "owner": "Mike Ye", "prepared_by": "Ella", "rationale": "17/20; include\n\n**Perimeter:** integrated advanced lithography, installed support and process ecosystem. Company-level attribution uses the integrated-capability route; no unsupported EUV revenue percentage is assigned. Non-EUV products are not assumed equally scarce.\n\n**Evidence:** Q2 sales were €9.326bn, gross margin 54%, and installed-base management €2.762bn; that last category includes services and field options. The 2025 report shows €11.3bn operating income after €4.7bn R&D. Intel's September announcement documents High-NA use on selected production layers; it is a joint commercial origin, not independent validation of all adoption economics. [A1–A4]\n\n**Judgment:** C4/S4 reflect the specific EUV capability and the process changes needed to substitute; E3 reflects retained earnings, not a measured scarcity rent; P3 limits the claim to a defensible three-to-five-year path; D3 recognizes profit after substantial engineering while retaining uncertainty over future support and capacity spending. No claim that every customer must adopt High-NA now. Reuters reported TSMC cost reservations and continued use of existing EUV in May; that is dated customer counterevidence, not a current adoption schedule. [A5]\n\n**Review/removal trigger:** a commercially credible alternative for the relevant layers; customer process changes materially bypassing the capability; or sustained failure to retain economics after required development/support. Reassess adoption delays separately from a complete thesis failure. Next full review by December 16, or next results/material adoption news earlier. Quantified customer willingness to pay remains missing.", "falsifiers": [ "A commercially credible equivalent for relevant production layers", "Customer process changes that materially bypass the capability", "Sustained failure to retain economics after required development and support" ], "next_observation": "Quantify customer willingness to pay and update adoption evidence after results or material customer news.", "due_date": "2026-12-16" }, "review": { "as_of_cutoff": "2026-09-17", "reviewed_at": "2026-09-17T23:48:49Z", "source_dates": [ "2026-07-15", null, "2026-09-08", null, "2026-05-19" ], "next_review_due": "2026-12-16", "event_status": "clear_at_research_cutoff", "publication_at": "2026-09-18T00:15:00Z", "effective_at": "2026-09-18T00:15:00Z" }, "sensitivity": { "single_dimension_downgrade_pass": { "constraint": true, "substitution_resistance": true, "economic_capture": false, "persistence": false, "cost_of_defense": true }, "binding_dimensions": [ "economic_capture", "persistence" ], "interpretation": "rule_sensitivity_not_confidence_interval" }, "release": { "state": "released", "release_id": "speg-index-2026-09-17-v1", "predecessor_release_id": "speg-index-2026-09-17-rc1", "change_reasons": [ "initial_membership_release", "freshness_and_material_event_review" ], "content_hash": "sha256:dd781d157b8ea937d6797ce3e6b29b04685993d631fda989e15bfb0b2eb5592a" }, "valuation": { "peg_eligible": false, "peg": null, "peg_null_reason": "qualified_reference_path_not_assembled", "economic_profile_id": null, "economic_speg": null, "economic_speg_null_reason": "paired_valuation_uncalibrated", "sds_used_as_valuation_input": false } }, { "identity": { "issuer_id": "cadence", "stable_slug": "cadence", "legal_name": "Cadence Design Systems, Inc.", "display_name": "Cadence", "securities": [], "pricing_identity_status": "not_assembled" }, "scope": { "mechanism_id": "process-linked-electronic-design-workflows", "mechanism_family": "design_workflow", "customer_problem": "Design and verify increasingly complex semiconductors against qualified foundry processes.", "business_perimeter": "Integrated EDA and system-design workflows; acquired system-analysis activity is not automatically assigned core EDA scarcity.", "company_attribution_route": "integrated_capability", "coverage": { "numerator": null, "denominator": null, "period": null, "qualitative_rationale": "Core EDA is central across the company and supported by current operating and alliance evidence." }, "materiality_status": "adequate", "materiality_rationale": "Core EDA is central across the company and supported by current operating and alliance evidence.", "dependencies": [ "foundry process roadmaps", "semiconductor design intensity", "customer workflow renewal", "engineering talent" ] }, "dimensions": { "constraint": { "value": 3, "anchor_id": "C3", "reason": "Process-linked design workflows are difficult to reproduce, but multiple qualified providers exist.", "source_ids": [ "C1", "X1" ], "counterevidence": [ "Foundry alliance materials document multiple qualified EDA providers and prevent a uniqueness claim." ], "confidence": "Moderate", "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet contains traceable primary evidence and an external challenge, with visible limits on magnitude or duration.", "plausible_alternative_anchor": null }, "substitution_resistance": { "value": 3, "anchor_id": "S3", "reason": "Migration requires workflow rebuilding, validation, and foundry-linked qualification.", "source_ids": [ "C1", "X1" ], "counterevidence": [ "Foundry alliance materials document multiple qualified EDA providers and prevent a uniqueness claim." ], "confidence": "Moderate", "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet contains traceable primary evidence and an external challenge, with visible limits on magnitude or duration.", "plausible_alternative_anchor": null }, "economic_capture": { "value": 3, "anchor_id": "E3", "reason": "Current earnings persist after substantial R&D, although acquisition and compensation effects require continued review.", "source_ids": [ "C1" ], "counterevidence": [ "Foundry alliance materials document multiple qualified EDA providers and prevent a uniqueness claim." ], "confidence": "Moderate", "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet contains traceable primary evidence and an external challenge, with visible limits on magnitude or duration.", "plausible_alternative_anchor": null }, "persistence": { "value": 3, "anchor_id": "P3", "reason": "Recurring process integration supports a three-to-five-year case while process transitions remain a named risk.", "source_ids": [ "C1", "X1" ], "counterevidence": [ "Foundry alliance materials document multiple qualified EDA providers and prevent a uniqueness claim." ], "confidence": "Moderate", "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet contains traceable primary evidence and an external challenge, with visible limits on magnitude or duration.", "plausible_alternative_anchor": null }, "cost_of_defense": { "value": 3, "anchor_id": "D3", "reason": "Material operating benefit remains after reported research spending and compensation costs.", "source_ids": [ "C1" ], "counterevidence": [ "Foundry alliance materials document multiple qualified EDA providers and prevent a uniqueness claim." ], "confidence": "Moderate", "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet contains traceable primary evidence and an external challenge, with visible limits on magnitude or duration.", "plausible_alternative_anchor": null } }, "score": { "method_id": "speg-index-scarcity-v1.0.0", "total": 15, "vector": [ 3, 3, 3, 3, 3 ], "scale": "ordinal", "label": "Scarcity Durability Score", "meaning": "Ordinal research summary; not a probability, percentile, rank, or numerical valuation input." }, "eligibility": { "eligible_for_inclusion": true, "dimension_floors": { "pass": true, "reason": "C/S/E/P meet 3 and D meets 2." }, "materiality": { "pass": true, "reason": "Company-level materiality route is documented." }, "decisive_confidence": { "pass": true, "reason": "Every decisive dimension is at least Moderate confidence." }, "source_packet": { "pass": true, "reason": "Minimum admission packet is present for the draft judgment." }, "current_review": { "pass": true, "reason": "Structural review is current at the research cutoff." }, "material_event": { "pass": true, "reason": "No unresolved material eligibility event is recorded at the research cutoff." }, "reason_codes": [] }, "decision": { "research_decision": "include", "membership_state": "member", "owner": "Mike Ye", "prepared_by": "Ella", "rationale": "15/20; include\n\n**Perimeter:** integrated EDA and system-design workflows; qualitative company-level route. Acquired system-analysis activity is not automatically assigned core EDA scarcity.\n\n**Evidence:** Q2 revenue $1.584bn, GAAP operating margin 28.4% versus adjusted 45.5%, R&D $531.3m; core EDA grew 18%. TSMC's alliance documents design-flow collaboration and lists Cadence, Synopsys, Siemens and specialists. The extracted tables do not establish every product's certification status. [C1, X1]\n\n**Judgment:** C3/S3 for difficult-to-reproduce, process-linked workflows; E3/D3 for meaningful earnings after R&D and compensation costs; P3 for recurring process/design integration. The existence of qualified competitors prevents a uniqueness claim. Backlog is contractual visibility, not proof of five-year scarcity.\n\n**Review/removal trigger:** loss of relevance at major process transitions, material customer migration to competing flows, or deteriorating retained economics despite rising engineering spending. Next review at results or by December 16. Renewal pricing, actual switching costs and a fuller cash/SBC history remain missing. The same total as NVIDIA is not an assertion of identical economics.", "falsifiers": [ "Loss of relevance at major process transitions", "Material customer migration to competing design flows", "Deteriorating retained economics despite rising engineering spending" ], "next_observation": "Obtain renewal-pricing, switching-cost, cash-flow, and stock-compensation evidence at the next results review.", "due_date": "2026-12-16" }, "review": { "as_of_cutoff": "2026-09-17", "reviewed_at": "2026-09-17T23:48:49Z", "source_dates": [ "2026-07-27", null ], "next_review_due": "2026-12-16", "event_status": "clear_at_research_cutoff", "publication_at": "2026-09-18T00:15:00Z", "effective_at": "2026-09-18T00:15:00Z" }, "sensitivity": { "single_dimension_downgrade_pass": { "constraint": false, "substitution_resistance": false, "economic_capture": false, "persistence": false, "cost_of_defense": true }, "binding_dimensions": [ "constraint", "substitution_resistance", "economic_capture", "persistence" ], "interpretation": "rule_sensitivity_not_confidence_interval" }, "release": { "state": "released", "release_id": "speg-index-2026-09-17-v1", "predecessor_release_id": "speg-index-2026-09-17-rc1", "change_reasons": [ "initial_membership_release", "freshness_and_material_event_review" ], "content_hash": "sha256:dd781d157b8ea937d6797ce3e6b29b04685993d631fda989e15bfb0b2eb5592a" }, "valuation": { "peg_eligible": false, "peg": null, "peg_null_reason": "qualified_reference_path_not_assembled", "economic_profile_id": null, "economic_speg": null, "economic_speg_null_reason": "paired_valuation_uncalibrated", "sds_used_as_valuation_input": false } }, { "identity": { "issuer_id": "nvidia", "stable_slug": "nvidia", "legal_name": "NVIDIA Corporation", "display_name": "NVIDIA", "securities": [], "pricing_identity_status": "not_assembled" }, "scope": { "mechanism_id": "accelerated-computing-platform", "mechanism_family": "ecosystem_software", "customer_problem": "Train and serve advanced AI workloads with integrated compute, networking, and software.", "business_perimeter": "Accelerated-computing platform spanning hardware, networking, and software.", "company_attribution_route": "quantitative_revenue", "coverage": { "numerator": 89, "denominator": 96.221, "period": "Q2 FY2027", "qualitative_rationale": "Reported Data Center revenue represented approximately 92.5% of quarterly revenue; that does not make every dollar a scarcity rent." }, "materiality_status": "adequate", "materiality_rationale": "Reported Data Center revenue represented approximately 92.5% of quarterly revenue; that does not make every dollar a scarcity rent.", "dependencies": [ "foundry and advanced packaging capacity", "hyperscaler capital budgets", "customer financing and commitments", "software ecosystem continuity", "Hugging Face transaction funding, integration, and ecosystem neutrality" ] }, "dimensions": { "constraint": { "value": 3, "anchor_id": "C3", "reason": "The integrated platform is difficult to reproduce at current scale, while custom accelerators remain credible alternatives.", "source_ids": [ "N1", "N2" ], "counterevidence": [ "AWS Trainium and Neuron provide a concrete competing architecture, while the announced Hugging Face transaction expressly preserves multi-cloud and multi-accelerator choice; neither source supports a no-substitute claim." ], "confidence": "Moderate", "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet contains traceable primary evidence and an external challenge, with visible limits on magnitude or duration.", "plausible_alternative_anchor": null }, "substitution_resistance": { "value": 3, "anchor_id": "S3", "reason": "Software, networking, and operational integration impose material migration work without making substitution impossible.", "source_ids": [ "N1", "N2", "N3" ], "counterevidence": [ "AWS Trainium and Neuron provide a concrete competing architecture, while the announced Hugging Face transaction expressly preserves multi-cloud and multi-accelerator choice; neither source supports a no-substitute claim." ], "confidence": "Moderate", "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet contains traceable primary evidence and an external challenge, with visible limits on magnitude or duration.", "plausible_alternative_anchor": null }, "economic_capture": { "value": 3, "anchor_id": "E3", "reason": "Strong current operating economics persist after operating spending, but supplier and customer leakage remain review items.", "source_ids": [ "N1" ], "counterevidence": [ "AWS Trainium and Neuron provide a concrete competing architecture, while the announced Hugging Face transaction expressly preserves multi-cloud and multi-accelerator choice; neither source supports a no-substitute claim." ], "confidence": "Moderate", "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet contains traceable primary evidence and an external challenge, with visible limits on magnitude or duration.", "plausible_alternative_anchor": null }, "persistence": { "value": 3, "anchor_id": "P3", "reason": "Ecosystem continuity supports a three-to-five-year case, bounded by customer migration and custom-silicon responses.", "source_ids": [ "N1", "N2", "N3" ], "counterevidence": [ "AWS Trainium and Neuron provide a concrete competing architecture, while the announced Hugging Face transaction expressly preserves multi-cloud and multi-accelerator choice; neither source supports a no-substitute claim." ], "confidence": "Moderate", "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet contains traceable primary evidence and an external challenge, with visible limits on magnitude or duration.", "plausible_alternative_anchor": null }, "cost_of_defense": { "value": 3, "anchor_id": "D3", "reason": "Current economics remain substantial after reported operating costs; future commitments and platform support must stay visible.", "source_ids": [ "N1", "N3" ], "counterevidence": [ "AWS Trainium and Neuron provide a concrete competing architecture, while the announced Hugging Face transaction expressly preserves multi-cloud and multi-accelerator choice; neither source supports a no-substitute claim." ], "confidence": "Moderate", "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet contains traceable primary evidence and an external challenge, with visible limits on magnitude or duration.", "plausible_alternative_anchor": null } }, "score": { "method_id": "speg-index-scarcity-v1.0.0", "total": 15, "vector": [ 3, 3, 3, 3, 3 ], "scale": "ordinal", "label": "Scarcity Durability Score", "meaning": "Ordinal research summary; not a probability, percentile, rank, or numerical valuation input." }, "eligibility": { "eligible_for_inclusion": true, "dimension_floors": { "pass": true, "reason": "C/S/E/P meet 3 and D meets 2." }, "materiality": { "pass": true, "reason": "Company-level materiality route is documented." }, "decisive_confidence": { "pass": true, "reason": "Every decisive dimension is at least Moderate confidence." }, "source_packet": { "pass": true, "reason": "Minimum admission packet is present for the draft judgment." }, "current_review": { "pass": true, "reason": "Structural review is current at the research cutoff." }, "material_event": { "pass": true, "reason": "No unresolved material eligibility event is recorded at the research cutoff." }, "reason_codes": [] }, "decision": { "research_decision": "include", "membership_state": "member", "owner": "Mike Ye", "prepared_by": "Ella", "rationale": "15/20; include\n\n**Perimeter:** accelerated-computing platform spanning hardware, networking and software. Reported Data Center revenue of $89.0bn out of $96.221bn in Q2 FY2027 establishes material exposure (about 92.5%); not all that revenue is separately identified scarcity rent. GAAP gross margin was 75%, operating income $63.734bn, and operating expenses $8.408bn. Results include comparative periods. [N1]\n\n**Judgment:** C3/S3/P3 rest on integration and software/ecosystem continuity, not an assertion that GPUs have no substitutes. E3/D3 recognize strong retained current economics after operating spending, without a through-downturn claim. AWS offers a competing integrated Trainium/Neuron architecture and asserts lower migration friction; those are interested-vendor claims, but they are a concrete response path. [N2]\n\n**Material-event review:** NVIDIA's September 3 agreement to acquire Hugging Face for $12.9303bn is incorporated as an announced, not closed, perimeter and defense-cost event. The announcement says Hugging Face will remain open, multi-cloud and multi-accelerator and will not require NVIDIA compute. The transaction therefore is not credited as additional constraint or switching cost, does not change the current C/S/E/P/D anchors, and remains a named funding, integration and ecosystem-neutrality dependency. [N3]\n\n**Review/removal trigger:** documented migration that materially weakens platform retention, persistent margin/cash leakage to suppliers or customers, transaction funding or integration costs that absorb retained benefit, or loss of the announced multi-platform posture. Next review at transaction filing, close, earnings, or by December 16. Customer concentration, purchase commitments and financing arrangements need fuller recurring review; no benchmark marketing claim is treated as independent performance proof. This score is not a conclusion about today's share price.", "falsifiers": [ "Documented migration that materially weakens platform retention", "Persistent margin or cash leakage to suppliers or customers", "Transaction funding, integration, or support commitments that absorb retained benefit", "Loss of Hugging Face's announced multi-platform posture" ], "next_observation": "Review the Hugging Face transaction filing, financing, close, integration costs, ecosystem posture, customer concentration, commitments, and migration evidence at the earliest material update.", "due_date": "2026-12-16" }, "review": { "as_of_cutoff": "2026-09-17", "reviewed_at": "2026-09-17T23:48:49Z", "source_dates": [ "2026-08-26", null, "2026-09-03" ], "next_review_due": "2026-12-16", "event_status": "clear_at_research_cutoff", "publication_at": "2026-09-18T00:15:00Z", "effective_at": "2026-09-18T00:15:00Z" }, "sensitivity": { "single_dimension_downgrade_pass": { "constraint": false, "substitution_resistance": false, "economic_capture": false, "persistence": false, "cost_of_defense": true }, "binding_dimensions": [ "constraint", "substitution_resistance", "economic_capture", "persistence" ], "interpretation": "rule_sensitivity_not_confidence_interval" }, "release": { "state": "released", "release_id": "speg-index-2026-09-17-v1", "predecessor_release_id": "speg-index-2026-09-17-rc1", "change_reasons": [ "initial_membership_release", "freshness_and_material_event_review" ], "content_hash": "sha256:dd781d157b8ea937d6797ce3e6b29b04685993d631fda989e15bfb0b2eb5592a" }, "valuation": { "peg_eligible": false, "peg": null, "peg_null_reason": "qualified_reference_path_not_assembled", "economic_profile_id": null, "economic_speg": null, "economic_speg_null_reason": "paired_valuation_uncalibrated", "sds_used_as_valuation_input": false } }, { "identity": { "issuer_id": "synopsys", "stable_slug": "synopsys", "legal_name": "Synopsys, Inc.", "display_name": "Synopsys", "securities": [], "pricing_identity_status": "not_assembled" }, "scope": { "mechanism_id": "silicon-to-systems-design-workflow", "mechanism_family": "design_workflow", "customer_problem": "Design, verify, and integrate semiconductors and systems against qualified process requirements.", "business_perimeter": "Established EDA and IP capability, with newly consolidated Ansys operations separated from the core scarcity claim.", "company_attribution_route": "integrated_capability", "coverage": { "numerator": null, "denominator": null, "period": null, "qualitative_rationale": "EDA and IP are central to the company; acquisition-driven revenue is not treated as proof of scarcity." }, "materiality_status": "adequate", "materiality_rationale": "EDA and IP are central to the company; acquisition-driven revenue is not treated as proof of scarcity.", "dependencies": [ "foundry process roadmaps", "Ansys integration", "customer workflow renewal", "engineering talent" ] }, "dimensions": { "constraint": { "value": 3, "anchor_id": "C3", "reason": "Established process-linked workflows and IP are difficult to reproduce, but qualified alternatives exist.", "source_ids": [ "S1", "X1" ], "counterevidence": [ "Foundry alliance evidence shows multiple qualified design providers, and acquisition accounting creates a wide GAAP-adjusted gap." ], "confidence": "Moderate", "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet contains traceable primary evidence and an external challenge, with visible limits on magnitude or duration.", "plausible_alternative_anchor": null }, "substitution_resistance": { "value": 3, "anchor_id": "S3", "reason": "Workflow, model, and process migration impose substantial operational burden.", "source_ids": [ "S1", "X1" ], "counterevidence": [ "Foundry alliance evidence shows multiple qualified design providers, and acquisition accounting creates a wide GAAP-adjusted gap." ], "confidence": "Moderate", "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet contains traceable primary evidence and an external challenge, with visible limits on magnitude or duration.", "plausible_alternative_anchor": null }, "economic_capture": { "value": 3, "anchor_id": "E3", "reason": "Current operating earnings support capture, with acquisition effects and adjustments explicitly limiting the inference.", "source_ids": [ "S1" ], "counterevidence": [ "Foundry alliance evidence shows multiple qualified design providers, and acquisition accounting creates a wide GAAP-adjusted gap." ], "confidence": "Moderate", "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet contains traceable primary evidence and an external challenge, with visible limits on magnitude or duration.", "plausible_alternative_anchor": null }, "persistence": { "value": 3, "anchor_id": "P3", "reason": "Process-linked workflow integration supports a three-to-five-year case subject to continued qualification relevance.", "source_ids": [ "S1", "X1" ], "counterevidence": [ "Foundry alliance evidence shows multiple qualified design providers, and acquisition accounting creates a wide GAAP-adjusted gap." ], "confidence": "Moderate", "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet contains traceable primary evidence and an external challenge, with visible limits on magnitude or duration.", "plausible_alternative_anchor": null }, "cost_of_defense": { "value": 2, "anchor_id": "D2", "reason": "Acquisition integration and the GAAP-adjusted earnings gap make retained economics sensitive to full defense and integration costs.", "source_ids": [ "S1" ], "counterevidence": [ "Foundry alliance evidence shows multiple qualified design providers, and acquisition accounting creates a wide GAAP-adjusted gap." ], "confidence": "Moderate", "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet contains traceable primary evidence and an external challenge, with visible limits on magnitude or duration.", "plausible_alternative_anchor": null } }, "score": { "method_id": "speg-index-scarcity-v1.0.0", "total": 14, "vector": [ 3, 3, 3, 3, 2 ], "scale": "ordinal", "label": "Scarcity Durability Score", "meaning": "Ordinal research summary; not a probability, percentile, rank, or numerical valuation input." }, "eligibility": { "eligible_for_inclusion": true, "dimension_floors": { "pass": true, "reason": "C/S/E/P meet 3 and D meets 2." }, "materiality": { "pass": true, "reason": "Company-level materiality route is documented." }, "decisive_confidence": { "pass": true, "reason": "Every decisive dimension is at least Moderate confidence." }, "source_packet": { "pass": true, "reason": "Minimum admission packet is present for the draft judgment." }, "current_review": { "pass": true, "reason": "Structural review is current at the research cutoff." }, "material_event": { "pass": true, "reason": "No unresolved material eligibility event is recorded at the research cutoff." }, "reason_codes": [] }, "decision": { "research_decision": "include", "membership_state": "member", "owner": "Mike Ye", "prepared_by": "Ella", "rationale": "14/20; include, at the admission floor\n\n**Perimeter:** integrated silicon-to-systems design, with explicit separation of established EDA/IP from newly consolidated Ansys operations. The company-level route is qualitative; the acquisition's entire revenue increase is not scarcity.\n\n**Evidence:** Q3 FY2026 revenue $2.477bn, GAAP operating margin 14.4% versus adjusted 41.6%, R&D $719.7m. The outlook includes substantial Ansys revenue; comparison with the prior perimeter needs care. TSMC lists Synopsys among multiple EDA partners, supporting integration while documenting alternatives. [S1, X1]\n\n**Judgment:** C3/S3/P3 for established process-linked workflows and IP; E3 for current retained operating earnings, not adjusted growth alone. D2 explicitly reflects the acquisition/integration burden and wide GAAP adjustment gap. Inclusion relies on the established core capability, not on an assumed Ansys synergy premium.\n\n**Review/removal trigger:** integration or funding costs make D1 appropriate, core workflows lose qualified relevance, or evidence shows the economic benefit is not retained. Next review at results, material integration update, or December 16. An acquisition-normalized cash and compensation series remains a priority. Any one-point downgrade changes eligibility; this is one of the two proposed admissions with no score-floor headroom and must be shown as such.", "falsifiers": [ "Integration or funding costs that make D1 appropriate", "Loss of qualified relevance in core workflows", "Evidence that operating benefit is not retained" ], "next_observation": "Assemble an acquisition-normalized cash, compensation, and integration-cost series at results.", "due_date": "2026-12-16" }, "review": { "as_of_cutoff": "2026-09-17", "reviewed_at": "2026-09-17T23:48:49Z", "source_dates": [ "2026-08-26", null ], "next_review_due": "2026-12-16", "event_status": "clear_at_research_cutoff", "publication_at": "2026-09-18T00:15:00Z", "effective_at": "2026-09-18T00:15:00Z" }, "sensitivity": { "single_dimension_downgrade_pass": { "constraint": false, "substitution_resistance": false, "economic_capture": false, "persistence": false, "cost_of_defense": false }, "binding_dimensions": [ "constraint", "substitution_resistance", "economic_capture", "persistence", "cost_of_defense" ], "interpretation": "rule_sensitivity_not_confidence_interval" }, "release": { "state": "released", "release_id": "speg-index-2026-09-17-v1", "predecessor_release_id": "speg-index-2026-09-17-rc1", "change_reasons": [ "initial_membership_release", "freshness_and_material_event_review" ], "content_hash": "sha256:dd781d157b8ea937d6797ce3e6b29b04685993d631fda989e15bfb0b2eb5592a" }, "valuation": { "peg_eligible": false, "peg": null, "peg_null_reason": "qualified_reference_path_not_assembled", "economic_profile_id": null, "economic_speg": null, "economic_speg_null_reason": "paired_valuation_uncalibrated", "sds_used_as_valuation_input": false } }, { "identity": { "issuer_id": "tsmc", "stable_slug": "tsmc", "legal_name": "Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited", "display_name": "TSMC", "securities": [], "pricing_identity_status": "not_assembled" }, "scope": { "mechanism_id": "advanced-foundry-qualification-ecosystem", "mechanism_family": "manufacturing_qualification", "customer_problem": "Manufacture advanced semiconductors at qualified yield, scale, and process performance.", "business_perimeter": "Advanced-process manufacturing and its qualification and design ecosystem, with advanced packaging as a related capability.", "company_attribution_route": "integrated_capability", "coverage": { "numerator": null, "denominator": null, "period": null, "qualitative_rationale": "Advanced manufacturing is central across the foundry business; the reported 7nm-and-below wafer mix is not mislabeled as consolidated revenue." }, "materiality_status": "adequate", "materiality_rationale": "Advanced manufacturing is central across the foundry business; the reported 7nm-and-below wafer mix is not mislabeled as consolidated revenue.", "dependencies": [ "customer design commitments", "equipment supply", "geographic continuity", "capital deployment", "export permissions" ] }, "dimensions": { "constraint": { "value": 3, "anchor_id": "C3", "reason": "Few foundries can provide the relevant combined manufacturing, yield, and qualification capability at scale.", "source_ids": [ "T1", "T2", "X2" ], "counterevidence": [ "Samsung reports active 2nm and HBM engagements and ramps, demonstrating competitive response without proving equivalent yield or scale." ], "confidence": "Moderate", "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet contains traceable primary evidence and an external challenge, with visible limits on magnitude or duration.", "plausible_alternative_anchor": null }, "substitution_resistance": { "value": 3, "anchor_id": "S3", "reason": "Customer process integration and design qualification impose substantial migration burden.", "source_ids": [ "T1", "T2", "X2" ], "counterevidence": [ "Samsung reports active 2nm and HBM engagements and ramps, demonstrating competitive response without proving equivalent yield or scale." ], "confidence": "Moderate", "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet contains traceable primary evidence and an external challenge, with visible limits on magnitude or duration.", "plausible_alternative_anchor": null }, "economic_capture": { "value": 3, "anchor_id": "E3", "reason": "Reported operating margins show retained economics, though the packet does not isolate scarcity rent from cycle and mix.", "source_ids": [ "T1", "T3" ], "counterevidence": [ "Samsung reports active 2nm and HBM engagements and ramps, demonstrating competitive response without proving equivalent yield or scale." ], "confidence": "Moderate", "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet contains traceable primary evidence and an external challenge, with visible limits on magnitude or duration.", "plausible_alternative_anchor": null }, "persistence": { "value": 3, "anchor_id": "P3", "reason": "The qualification ecosystem supports a three-to-five-year path while rival ramps remain an explicit response.", "source_ids": [ "T1", "T3", "X2" ], "counterevidence": [ "Samsung reports active 2nm and HBM engagements and ramps, demonstrating competitive response without proving equivalent yield or scale." ], "confidence": "Moderate", "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet contains traceable primary evidence and an external challenge, with visible limits on magnitude or duration.", "plausible_alternative_anchor": null }, "cost_of_defense": { "value": 2, "anchor_id": "D2", "reason": "Large capital requirements and expected ramp dilution make retained economics sensitive to defense spending.", "source_ids": [ "T1", "T3" ], "counterevidence": [ "Samsung reports active 2nm and HBM engagements and ramps, demonstrating competitive response without proving equivalent yield or scale." ], "confidence": "Moderate", "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet contains traceable primary evidence and an external challenge, with visible limits on magnitude or duration.", "plausible_alternative_anchor": null } }, "score": { "method_id": "speg-index-scarcity-v1.0.0", "total": 14, "vector": [ 3, 3, 3, 3, 2 ], "scale": "ordinal", "label": "Scarcity Durability Score", "meaning": "Ordinal research summary; not a probability, percentile, rank, or numerical valuation input." }, "eligibility": { "eligible_for_inclusion": true, "dimension_floors": { "pass": true, "reason": "C/S/E/P meet 3 and D meets 2." }, "materiality": { "pass": true, "reason": "Company-level materiality route is documented." }, "decisive_confidence": { "pass": true, "reason": "Every decisive dimension is at least Moderate confidence." }, "source_packet": { "pass": true, "reason": "Minimum admission packet is present for the draft judgment." }, "current_review": { "pass": true, "reason": "Structural review is current at the research cutoff." }, "material_event": { "pass": true, "reason": "No unresolved material eligibility event is recorded at the research cutoff." }, "reason_codes": [] }, "decision": { "research_decision": "include", "membership_state": "member", "owner": "Mike Ye", "prepared_by": "Ella", "rationale": "14/20; include\n\n**Perimeter:** advanced process manufacturing and its qualification/design ecosystem, with packaging as a related capability. Q2 wafer mix was 77% at 7nm and below; this is wafer revenue, not consolidated revenue. The integrated-capability route supports company-level selection. Q2 revenue was $40.2bn, operating margin 60.3%; management reported $15.7bn quarterly capex and a $60–64bn annual capital budget. Management also anticipates margin dilution from new-node and overseas ramps. [T1–T3]\n\n**Judgment:** C3 reflects the combined manufacturing/qualification ecosystem and the existence of competing foundries. S3/E3/P3 recognize customer process integration and earnings retention with a reasoned three-to-five-year path. D2 captures the material cost of maintaining capability. Samsung's own results describe 2nm engagements and planned ramps, demonstrating an active competitive response rather than proving equivalent scale or yield. [X2]\n\n**Review/removal trigger:** rival production proves sufficiently substitutable at relevant performance/yield/scale, leading customers shift meaningful designs, or defense investment persistently consumes retained economics. Next review at results or by December 16. Geographic and customer concentration are additional risks, not score bonuses. A full capital-return comparison and customer-specific switching evidence remain incomplete.", "falsifiers": [ "Rival production proves substitutable at relevant yield, performance, and scale", "Leading customers shift meaningful designs", "Defense investment persistently consumes retained economics" ], "next_observation": "Update capital returns, customer switching evidence, rival yields, and overseas-ramp economics at results.", "due_date": "2026-12-16" }, "review": { "as_of_cutoff": "2026-09-17", "reviewed_at": "2026-09-17T23:48:49Z", "source_dates": [ "2026-07-16", "2026-07-16", "2026-07-16", "2026-07-30" ], "next_review_due": "2026-12-16", "event_status": "clear_at_research_cutoff", "publication_at": "2026-09-18T00:15:00Z", "effective_at": "2026-09-18T00:15:00Z" }, "sensitivity": { "single_dimension_downgrade_pass": { "constraint": false, "substitution_resistance": false, "economic_capture": false, "persistence": false, "cost_of_defense": false }, "binding_dimensions": [ "constraint", "substitution_resistance", "economic_capture", "persistence", "cost_of_defense" ], "interpretation": "rule_sensitivity_not_confidence_interval" }, "release": { "state": "released", "release_id": "speg-index-2026-09-17-v1", "predecessor_release_id": "speg-index-2026-09-17-rc1", "change_reasons": [ "initial_membership_release", "freshness_and_material_event_review" ], "content_hash": "sha256:dd781d157b8ea937d6797ce3e6b29b04685993d631fda989e15bfb0b2eb5592a" }, "valuation": { "peg_eligible": false, "peg": null, "peg_null_reason": "qualified_reference_path_not_assembled", "economic_profile_id": null, "economic_speg": null, "economic_speg_null_reason": "paired_valuation_uncalibrated", "sds_used_as_valuation_input": false } }, { "identity": { "issuer_id": "analog-devices", "stable_slug": "analog-devices", "legal_name": "Analog Devices, Inc.", "display_name": "Analog Devices", "securities": [], "pricing_identity_status": "not_assembled" }, "scope": { "mechanism_id": "long-life-signal-chain-components", "mechanism_family": "embedded_component", "customer_problem": "Maintain qualified signal-chain performance over long industrial and automotive product lives.", "business_perimeter": "Demanding signal-chain applications inside a broader industrial and automotive portfolio.", "company_attribution_route": "not_established", "coverage": { "numerator": null, "denominator": null, "period": null, "qualitative_rationale": "The packet does not establish which scarce applications represent a material company perimeter." }, "materiality_status": "unassessable", "materiality_rationale": "The packet does not establish which scarce applications represent a material company perimeter.", "dependencies": [ "industrial and automotive design cycles", "customer requalification behavior", "manufacturing continuity", "portfolio integration" ] }, "dimensions": { "constraint": { "value": 2, "anchor_id": "C2", "reason": "Qualified alternatives appear credible across too much of the portfolio to support C3 company-wide.", "source_ids": [ "D2", "D3", "D4" ], "counterevidence": [ "Texas Instruments also supports long product lives, limiting the inference that continuity alone is a unique constraint." ], "confidence": "Low", "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet supports a tentative judgment but leaves an admission-critical company-level premise unresolved.", "plausible_alternative_anchor": 1 }, "substitution_resistance": { "value": 3, "anchor_id": "S3", "reason": "Embedded designs can impose material requalification work, although application-level evidence is incomplete.", "source_ids": [ "D2", "D3" ], "counterevidence": [ "Texas Instruments also supports long product lives, limiting the inference that continuity alone is a unique constraint." ], "confidence": "Moderate", "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet contains traceable primary evidence and an external challenge, with visible limits on magnitude or duration.", "plausible_alternative_anchor": null }, "economic_capture": { "value": 3, "anchor_id": "E3", "reason": "Current operating and cash economics are positive across periods; scarcity attribution remains incomplete.", "source_ids": [ "D1" ], "counterevidence": [ "Texas Instruments also supports long product lives, limiting the inference that continuity alone is a unique constraint." ], "confidence": "Moderate", "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet contains traceable primary evidence and an external challenge, with visible limits on magnitude or duration.", "plausible_alternative_anchor": null }, "persistence": { "value": 3, "anchor_id": "P3", "reason": "Long product lives support persistence in selected designs, but the scarce perimeter is not established.", "source_ids": [ "D2", "D3", "D4" ], "counterevidence": [ "Texas Instruments also supports long product lives, limiting the inference that continuity alone is a unique constraint." ], "confidence": "Moderate", "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet contains traceable primary evidence and an external challenge, with visible limits on magnitude or duration.", "plausible_alternative_anchor": null }, "cost_of_defense": { "value": 3, "anchor_id": "D3", "reason": "Reported economics remain after capital spending, without a complete split between growth and defense.", "source_ids": [ "D1" ], "counterevidence": [ "Texas Instruments also supports long product lives, limiting the inference that continuity alone is a unique constraint." ], "confidence": "Moderate", "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet contains traceable primary evidence and an external challenge, with visible limits on magnitude or duration.", "plausible_alternative_anchor": null } }, "score": { "method_id": "speg-index-scarcity-v1.0.0", "total": 14, "vector": [ 2, 3, 3, 3, 3 ], "scale": "ordinal", "label": "Scarcity Durability Score", "meaning": "Ordinal research summary; not a probability, percentile, rank, or numerical valuation input." }, "eligibility": { "eligible_for_inclusion": false, "dimension_floors": { "pass": false, "reason": "At least one dimension is unknown or below its floor." }, "materiality": { "pass": false, "reason": "Company-level materiality is unassessable." }, "decisive_confidence": { "pass": false, "reason": "At least one decisive dimension is below Moderate confidence." }, "source_packet": { "pass": false, "reason": "Minimum admission packet is incomplete." }, "current_review": { "pass": true, "reason": "Structural review is current at the research cutoff." }, "material_event": { "pass": false, "reason": "A material perimeter or eligibility event remains unresolved." }, "reason_codes": [ "dimension_floors_failed", "materiality_failed", "decisive_confidence_failed", "source_packet_failed", "material_event_failed" ] }, "decision": { "research_decision": "watchlist", "membership_state": null, "owner": "Mike Ye", "prepared_by": "Ella", "rationale": "14/20; watchlist\n\nQ3 FY2026 revenue was $4.022bn with GAAP operating margin 40.1%; trailing company-defined FCF was $4.937bn after $607.8m capex. ADI describes long product lives and discontinuation notice. TI also describes long product lives, so continuity alone is not unique. [D1–D3]\n\n**Judgment:** S3/E3/P3/D3 recognize embedded design continuity and retained economics. C2 and Low confidence in whole-company scarcity prevent admission despite total 14. Industrial and automotive categories cannot be labeled entirely scarce. The September 9 announced Alif acquisition is an additional perimeter-review item, not credited as an established capability. [D4]\n\n**Admission evidence needed:** identify demanding signal-chain applications, qualified substitutes and requalification burdens, then demonstrate material company exposure. Review after that packet or at next results/by December 16. Commodity-like replacement or deterioration after normal cycle adjustment would weaken the case further.", "falsifiers": [ "Commodity-like replacement across claimed applications", "Cycle-normalized economics deteriorate despite normal defense spending", "The acquisition changes the relevant perimeter without a completed review" ], "next_observation": "Identify demanding applications, qualified substitutes, requalification burdens, and their material company exposure.", "due_date": "2026-12-16" }, "review": { "as_of_cutoff": "2026-09-17", "reviewed_at": "2026-09-17T23:48:49Z", "source_dates": [ "2026-08-19", null, null, "2026-09-09" ], "next_review_due": "2026-12-16", "event_status": "review_open", "publication_at": "2026-09-18T00:15:00Z", "effective_at": "2026-09-18T00:15:00Z" }, "sensitivity": { "single_dimension_downgrade_pass": { "constraint": false, "substitution_resistance": false, "economic_capture": false, "persistence": false, "cost_of_defense": false }, "binding_dimensions": [ "constraint", "substitution_resistance", "economic_capture", "persistence", "cost_of_defense" ], "interpretation": "rule_sensitivity_not_confidence_interval" }, "release": { "state": "released", "release_id": "speg-index-2026-09-17-v1", "predecessor_release_id": "speg-index-2026-09-17-rc1", "change_reasons": [ "initial_membership_release", "freshness_and_material_event_review" ], "content_hash": "sha256:dd781d157b8ea937d6797ce3e6b29b04685993d631fda989e15bfb0b2eb5592a" }, "valuation": { "peg_eligible": false, "peg": null, "peg_null_reason": "qualified_reference_path_not_assembled", "economic_profile_id": null, "economic_speg": null, "economic_speg_null_reason": "paired_valuation_uncalibrated", "sds_used_as_valuation_input": false } }, { "identity": { "issuer_id": "arista", "stable_slug": "arista", "legal_name": "Arista Networks, Inc.", "display_name": "Arista", "securities": [], "pricing_identity_status": "not_assembled" }, "scope": { "mechanism_id": "cloud-network-operating-stack", "mechanism_family": "systems_service", "customer_problem": "Operate high-performance data-center networks consistently across large deployments.", "business_perimeter": "Ethernet switching systems, EOS software, and support for cloud and AI data-center networks.", "company_attribution_route": "integrated_capability", "coverage": { "numerator": null, "denominator": null, "period": null, "qualitative_rationale": "The integrated network operating stack is central to the company, while customer and supplier concentration remain explicit dependencies." }, "materiality_status": "adequate", "materiality_rationale": "The integrated network operating stack is central to the company, while customer and supplier concentration remain explicit dependencies.", "dependencies": [ "large cloud customers", "merchant silicon", "network standards", "support renewal" ] }, "dimensions": { "constraint": { "value": 2, "anchor_id": "C2", "reason": "Technical integration exists, but qualified systems and disaggregated alternatives keep feasible supply broader than C3.", "source_ids": [ "R1", "R2" ], "counterevidence": [ "Open standards, disaggregation, SONiC, and rival systems provide real customer alternatives." ], "confidence": "Low", "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet supports a tentative judgment but leaves an admission-critical company-level premise unresolved.", "plausible_alternative_anchor": 1 }, "substitution_resistance": { "value": 3, "anchor_id": "S3", "reason": "Operational consistency and installed workflows create material switching work.", "source_ids": [ "R2" ], "counterevidence": [ "Open standards, disaggregation, SONiC, and rival systems provide real customer alternatives." ], "confidence": "Moderate", "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet contains traceable primary evidence and an external challenge, with visible limits on magnitude or duration.", "plausible_alternative_anchor": null }, "economic_capture": { "value": 3, "anchor_id": "E3", "reason": "Reported margins show current retention, without proving the portion caused by durable scarcity.", "source_ids": [ "R1" ], "counterevidence": [ "Open standards, disaggregation, SONiC, and rival systems provide real customer alternatives." ], "confidence": "Moderate", "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet contains traceable primary evidence and an external challenge, with visible limits on magnitude or duration.", "plausible_alternative_anchor": null }, "persistence": { "value": 2, "anchor_id": "P2", "reason": "Customer alternatives and concentration leave the three-to-five-year rent-retention case unresolved.", "source_ids": [ "R1", "R2" ], "counterevidence": [ "Open standards, disaggregation, SONiC, and rival systems provide real customer alternatives." ], "confidence": "Low", "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet supports a tentative judgment but leaves an admission-critical company-level premise unresolved.", "plausible_alternative_anchor": 1 }, "cost_of_defense": { "value": 3, "anchor_id": "D3", "reason": "Current retained economics remain material after operating investment.", "source_ids": [ "R1" ], "counterevidence": [ "Open standards, disaggregation, SONiC, and rival systems provide real customer alternatives." ], "confidence": "Moderate", "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet contains traceable primary evidence and an external challenge, with visible limits on magnitude or duration.", "plausible_alternative_anchor": null } }, "score": { "method_id": "speg-index-scarcity-v1.0.0", "total": 13, "vector": [ 2, 3, 3, 2, 3 ], "scale": "ordinal", "label": "Scarcity Durability Score", "meaning": "Ordinal research summary; not a probability, percentile, rank, or numerical valuation input." }, "eligibility": { "eligible_for_inclusion": false, "dimension_floors": { "pass": false, "reason": "At least one dimension is unknown or below its floor." }, "materiality": { "pass": true, "reason": "Company-level materiality route is documented." }, "decisive_confidence": { "pass": false, "reason": "At least one decisive dimension is below Moderate confidence." }, "source_packet": { "pass": false, "reason": "Minimum admission packet is incomplete." }, "current_review": { "pass": true, "reason": "Structural review is current at the research cutoff." }, "material_event": { "pass": true, "reason": "No unresolved material eligibility event is recorded at the research cutoff." }, "reason_codes": [ "dimension_floors_failed", "decisive_confidence_failed", "source_packet_failed" ] }, "decision": { "research_decision": "watchlist", "membership_state": null, "owner": "Mike Ye", "prepared_by": "Ella", "rationale": "13/20; watchlist\n\nQ2 revenue was $3.036bn and GAAP operating margin 45.4%. Its release identifies large-customer concentration, merchant-silicon dependence and competition. EOS documents operational consistency, but also open standards, disaggregation and customer alternatives including SONiC. [R1–R2]\n\n**Judgment:** S3/E3/D3 reflect integration and retained economics; C2/P2 reflect unresolved limits on customer alternatives and durable rent retention. Low confidence applies to the broad scarcity claim, not to the reported margin. A component shortage may hurt delivery rather than enrich Arista.\n\n**Admission evidence needed:** external customer evidence of switching/qualification costs and retention through rival offerings, with a credible three-to-five-year path. Next review at results or by December 16. Material customer migration, lower support renewals or supplier capture would weaken the thesis.", "falsifiers": [ "Material customer migration", "Lower support renewal economics", "Supplier capture of the economic benefit" ], "next_observation": "Obtain external customer evidence on migration cost and retention through rival offerings.", "due_date": "2026-12-16" }, "review": { "as_of_cutoff": "2026-09-17", "reviewed_at": "2026-09-17T23:48:49Z", "source_dates": [ "2026-08-04", null ], "next_review_due": "2026-12-16", "event_status": "clear_at_research_cutoff", "publication_at": "2026-09-18T00:15:00Z", "effective_at": "2026-09-18T00:15:00Z" }, "sensitivity": { "single_dimension_downgrade_pass": { "constraint": false, "substitution_resistance": false, "economic_capture": false, "persistence": false, "cost_of_defense": false }, "binding_dimensions": [ "constraint", "substitution_resistance", "economic_capture", "persistence", "cost_of_defense" ], "interpretation": "rule_sensitivity_not_confidence_interval" }, "release": { "state": "released", "release_id": "speg-index-2026-09-17-v1", "predecessor_release_id": "speg-index-2026-09-17-rc1", "change_reasons": [ "initial_membership_release", "freshness_and_material_event_review" ], "content_hash": "sha256:dd781d157b8ea937d6797ce3e6b29b04685993d631fda989e15bfb0b2eb5592a" }, "valuation": { "peg_eligible": false, "peg": null, "peg_null_reason": "qualified_reference_path_not_assembled", "economic_profile_id": null, "economic_speg": null, "economic_speg_null_reason": "paired_valuation_uncalibrated", "sds_used_as_valuation_input": false } }, { "identity": { "issuer_id": "micron", "stable_slug": "micron", "legal_name": "Micron Technology, Inc.", "display_name": "Micron", "securities": [], "pricing_identity_status": "not_assembled" }, "scope": { "mechanism_id": "qualified-high-bandwidth-memory", "mechanism_family": "manufacturing_qualification", "customer_problem": "Supply qualified high-bandwidth memory through product transitions at required scale.", "business_perimeter": "HBM and related advanced-memory capability inside a broader DRAM and NAND portfolio.", "company_attribution_route": "not_established", "coverage": { "numerator": null, "denominator": null, "period": null, "qualitative_rationale": "Executed coverage, contract units, and the bridge from HBM to company-wide economics are incomplete." }, "materiality_status": "unassessable", "materiality_rationale": "Executed coverage, contract units, and the bridge from HBM to company-wide economics are incomplete.", "dependencies": [ "AI accelerator demand", "customer qualification", "memory pricing", "capital spending", "contract resets" ] }, "dimensions": { "constraint": { "value": 3, "anchor_id": "C3", "reason": "Manufacturing and qualification barriers are meaningful for HBM.", "source_ids": [ "M1", "M2", "H1", "X2" ], "counterevidence": [ "Samsung and SK hynix document active rival progress; current tight-market economics cannot establish multi-cycle substitution resistance." ], "confidence": "Moderate", "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet contains traceable primary evidence and an external challenge, with visible limits on magnitude or duration.", "plausible_alternative_anchor": null }, "substitution_resistance": { "value": 2, "anchor_id": "S2", "reason": "The packet does not establish resistance to qualified rival supply across the company perimeter.", "source_ids": [ "M2", "H1", "X2" ], "counterevidence": [ "Samsung and SK hynix document active rival progress; current tight-market economics cannot establish multi-cycle substitution resistance." ], "confidence": "Moderate", "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet contains traceable primary evidence and an external challenge, with visible limits on magnitude or duration.", "plausible_alternative_anchor": null }, "economic_capture": { "value": 3, "anchor_id": "E3", "reason": "Current reported economics are strong, but present-cycle capture is not durable-retention evidence by itself.", "source_ids": [ "M1", "M2" ], "counterevidence": [ "Samsung and SK hynix document active rival progress; current tight-market economics cannot establish multi-cycle substitution resistance." ], "confidence": "Moderate", "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet contains traceable primary evidence and an external challenge, with visible limits on magnitude or duration.", "plausible_alternative_anchor": null }, "persistence": { "value": 2, "anchor_id": "P2", "reason": "Contract and pricing evidence does not yet support the three-to-five-year case.", "source_ids": [ "M2", "H1", "X2" ], "counterevidence": [ "Samsung and SK hynix document active rival progress; current tight-market economics cannot establish multi-cycle substitution resistance." ], "confidence": "Moderate", "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet contains traceable primary evidence and an external challenge, with visible limits on magnitude or duration.", "plausible_alternative_anchor": null }, "cost_of_defense": { "value": 2, "anchor_id": "D2", "reason": "Large capital commitments and deposit obligations make retained economics sensitive to full investment needs.", "source_ids": [ "M2" ], "counterevidence": [ "Samsung and SK hynix document active rival progress; current tight-market economics cannot establish multi-cycle substitution resistance." ], "confidence": "Moderate", "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet contains traceable primary evidence and an external challenge, with visible limits on magnitude or duration.", "plausible_alternative_anchor": null } }, "score": { "method_id": "speg-index-scarcity-v1.0.0", "total": 12, "vector": [ 3, 2, 3, 2, 2 ], "scale": "ordinal", "label": "Scarcity Durability Score", "meaning": "Ordinal research summary; not a probability, percentile, rank, or numerical valuation input." }, "eligibility": { "eligible_for_inclusion": false, "dimension_floors": { "pass": false, "reason": "At least one dimension is unknown or below its floor." }, "materiality": { "pass": false, "reason": "Company-level materiality is unassessable." }, "decisive_confidence": { "pass": true, "reason": "Every decisive dimension is at least Moderate confidence." }, "source_packet": { "pass": false, "reason": "Minimum admission packet is incomplete." }, "current_review": { "pass": true, "reason": "Structural review is current at the research cutoff." }, "material_event": { "pass": true, "reason": "No unresolved material eligibility event is recorded at the research cutoff." }, "reason_codes": [ "dimension_floors_failed", "materiality_failed", "source_packet_failed" ] }, "decision": { "research_decision": "watchlist", "membership_state": null, "owner": "Mike Ye", "prepared_by": "Ella", "rationale": "12/20; watchlist\n\nThe June Q3 release and prepared remarks document strong current economics, strategic agreements, planned versus executed coverage, caps/floors and significant capital commitments. Refundable customer deposits are not free equity. Rival memory progress is documented by Samsung and SK hynix. [M1–M2, H1, X2]\n\n**Judgment:** C3/E3 for capability barriers and current capture; S2/P2 because the packet does not establish durable company-wide resistance to qualified rival supply through a three-to-five-year cycle; D2 for investment sensitivity. This is not a claim that all memory is a commodity. The earlier uncalibrated premium experiment is not evidence for a higher score.\n\n**Admission evidence needed:** executed coverage, reset economics, qualification/switching evidence and retention beyond the present tight market. Next review at new results/contract disclosure, and no later than December 16. Sustained pricing normalization without cost relief or increased required investment would weaken the case. Current June guidance is not fresh consensus; the unusual fiscal-week count remains relevant to future valuation.", "falsifiers": [ "Pricing normalizes without cost relief", "Executed customer coverage proves weaker than planned coverage", "Required investment rises faster than retained benefit" ], "next_observation": "Verify executed coverage, resets, qualification and switching evidence, capital needs, and material company attribution.", "due_date": "2026-12-16" }, "review": { "as_of_cutoff": "2026-09-17", "reviewed_at": "2026-09-17T23:48:49Z", "source_dates": [ "2026-06-24", "2026-06-24", "2026-07-29", "2026-07-30" ], "next_review_due": "2026-12-16", "event_status": "clear_at_research_cutoff", "publication_at": "2026-09-18T00:15:00Z", "effective_at": "2026-09-18T00:15:00Z" }, "sensitivity": { "single_dimension_downgrade_pass": { "constraint": false, "substitution_resistance": false, "economic_capture": false, "persistence": false, "cost_of_defense": false }, "binding_dimensions": [ "constraint", "substitution_resistance", "economic_capture", "persistence", "cost_of_defense" ], "interpretation": "rule_sensitivity_not_confidence_interval" }, "release": { "state": "released", "release_id": "speg-index-2026-09-17-v1", "predecessor_release_id": "speg-index-2026-09-17-rc1", "change_reasons": [ "initial_membership_release", "freshness_and_material_event_review" ], "content_hash": "sha256:dd781d157b8ea937d6797ce3e6b29b04685993d631fda989e15bfb0b2eb5592a" }, "valuation": { "peg_eligible": false, "peg": null, "peg_null_reason": "qualified_reference_path_not_assembled", "economic_profile_id": null, "economic_speg": null, "economic_speg_null_reason": "paired_valuation_uncalibrated", "sds_used_as_valuation_input": false } }, { "identity": { "issuer_id": "sk-hynix", "stable_slug": "sk-hynix", "legal_name": "SK hynix Inc.", "display_name": "SK hynix", "securities": [], "pricing_identity_status": "not_assembled" }, "scope": { "mechanism_id": "qualified-high-bandwidth-memory", "mechanism_family": "manufacturing_qualification", "customer_problem": "Supply qualified high-bandwidth memory at required performance, packaging, and scale.", "business_perimeter": "HBM design, manufacturing, and packaging capability inside a broader DRAM and NAND business.", "company_attribution_route": "not_established", "coverage": { "numerator": null, "denominator": null, "period": null, "qualitative_rationale": "The packet does not bridge the narrower HBM mechanism to the full company perimeter without importing broader memory-cycle economics." }, "materiality_status": "unassessable", "materiality_rationale": "The packet does not bridge the narrower HBM mechanism to the full company perimeter without importing broader memory-cycle economics.", "dependencies": [ "AI accelerator demand", "customer qualification", "packaging capacity", "memory pricing", "capital investment" ] }, "dimensions": { "constraint": { "value": 3, "anchor_id": "C3", "reason": "HBM capability and packaging qualification create meaningful supply barriers with active qualified rivals.", "source_ids": [ "H1", "X2" ], "counterevidence": [ "Samsung reports HBM4 sales and HBM4E sampling, while announced new capacity is not current qualified output." ], "confidence": "Moderate", "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet contains traceable primary evidence and an external challenge, with visible limits on magnitude or duration.", "plausible_alternative_anchor": null }, "substitution_resistance": { "value": 3, "anchor_id": "S3", "reason": "Customer qualification imposes material burden, though alternative supply exists.", "source_ids": [ "H1", "X2" ], "counterevidence": [ "Samsung reports HBM4 sales and HBM4E sampling, while announced new capacity is not current qualified output." ], "confidence": "Moderate", "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet contains traceable primary evidence and an external challenge, with visible limits on magnitude or duration.", "plausible_alternative_anchor": null }, "economic_capture": { "value": 3, "anchor_id": "E3", "reason": "Current operating capture is visible but partly coincides with memory-price increases.", "source_ids": [ "H1" ], "counterevidence": [ "Samsung reports HBM4 sales and HBM4E sampling, while announced new capacity is not current qualified output." ], "confidence": "Moderate", "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet contains traceable primary evidence and an external challenge, with visible limits on magnitude or duration.", "plausible_alternative_anchor": null }, "persistence": { "value": 2, "anchor_id": "P2", "reason": "Contract resets and rival ramps leave three-to-five-year retention unresolved.", "source_ids": [ "H1", "X2" ], "counterevidence": [ "Samsung reports HBM4 sales and HBM4E sampling, while announced new capacity is not current qualified output." ], "confidence": "Moderate", "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet contains traceable primary evidence and an external challenge, with visible limits on magnitude or duration.", "plausible_alternative_anchor": null }, "cost_of_defense": { "value": 2, "anchor_id": "D2", "reason": "Continued capital investment makes residual economics plausible but sensitive.", "source_ids": [ "H1", "H2" ], "counterevidence": [ "Samsung reports HBM4 sales and HBM4E sampling, while announced new capacity is not current qualified output." ], "confidence": "Moderate", "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet contains traceable primary evidence and an external challenge, with visible limits on magnitude or duration.", "plausible_alternative_anchor": null } }, "score": { "method_id": "speg-index-scarcity-v1.0.0", "total": 13, "vector": [ 3, 3, 3, 2, 2 ], "scale": "ordinal", "label": "Scarcity Durability Score", "meaning": "Ordinal research summary; not a probability, percentile, rank, or numerical valuation input." }, "eligibility": { "eligible_for_inclusion": false, "dimension_floors": { "pass": false, "reason": "At least one dimension is unknown or below its floor." }, "materiality": { "pass": false, "reason": "Company-level materiality is unassessable." }, "decisive_confidence": { "pass": true, "reason": "Every decisive dimension is at least Moderate confidence." }, "source_packet": { "pass": false, "reason": "Minimum admission packet is incomplete." }, "current_review": { "pass": true, "reason": "Structural review is current at the research cutoff." }, "material_event": { "pass": true, "reason": "No unresolved material eligibility event is recorded at the research cutoff." }, "reason_codes": [ "dimension_floors_failed", "materiality_failed", "source_packet_failed" ] }, "decision": { "research_decision": "watchlist", "membership_state": null, "owner": "Mike Ye", "prepared_by": "Ella", "rationale": "13/20; watchlist\n\nQ2 release reports HBM4 mass shipments, approximately ten customer LTAs and capacity expansion; it attributes strong economics partly to memory-price increases. The Indiana project targets production in the second half of 2029. Samsung reports HBM4 sales and HBM4E sampling, an active rival response. [H1–H2, X2]\n\n**Judgment:** C3/S3 reflect qualified memory/packaging capability; E3 reflects operating capture rather than net-income windfalls; P2 reflects unresolved pricing and competition through renewals; D2 recognizes continued investment. The narrower HBM thesis cannot automatically cover all DRAM/NAND economics. Moderate confidence does not mean LTAs fix prices or margins.\n\n**Admission evidence needed:** contract coverage and resets, customer retention across generations, and retained economics after rival ramps/defense spending sufficient for P3. Next results or material qualification update/by December 16. Do not import the old internal symbol “SKH” as a verified current US security identifier; the issuer record and selected share class require separate verification before price/PEG ingestion.", "falsifiers": [ "Rival qualification erodes allocation or economics", "Contract resets fail to retain price-cost benefit", "Required investment absorbs retained economics" ], "next_observation": "Verify contract coverage and resets, customer retention across generations, company materiality, and economics after rival ramps.", "due_date": "2026-12-16" }, "review": { "as_of_cutoff": "2026-09-17", "reviewed_at": "2026-09-17T23:48:49Z", "source_dates": [ "2026-07-29", "2026-08-28", "2026-07-30" ], "next_review_due": "2026-12-16", "event_status": "clear_at_research_cutoff", "publication_at": "2026-09-18T00:15:00Z", "effective_at": "2026-09-18T00:15:00Z" }, "sensitivity": { "single_dimension_downgrade_pass": { "constraint": false, "substitution_resistance": false, "economic_capture": false, "persistence": false, "cost_of_defense": false }, "binding_dimensions": [ "constraint", "substitution_resistance", "economic_capture", "persistence", "cost_of_defense" ], "interpretation": "rule_sensitivity_not_confidence_interval" }, "release": { "state": "released", "release_id": "speg-index-2026-09-17-v1", "predecessor_release_id": "speg-index-2026-09-17-rc1", "change_reasons": [ "initial_membership_release", "freshness_and_material_event_review" ], "content_hash": "sha256:dd781d157b8ea937d6797ce3e6b29b04685993d631fda989e15bfb0b2eb5592a" }, "valuation": { "peg_eligible": false, "peg": null, "peg_null_reason": "qualified_reference_path_not_assembled", "economic_profile_id": null, "economic_speg": null, "economic_speg_null_reason": "paired_valuation_uncalibrated", "sds_used_as_valuation_input": false } }, { "identity": { "issuer_id": "vertiv", "stable_slug": "vertiv", "legal_name": "Vertiv Holdings Co", "display_name": "Vertiv", "securities": [], "pricing_identity_status": "not_assembled" }, "scope": { "mechanism_id": "high-density-data-center-thermal-and-power-systems", "mechanism_family": "systems_service", "customer_problem": "Deploy and service power and cooling infrastructure for high-density compute reliably and on schedule.", "business_perimeter": "Data-center power, cooling, and service systems, with product and project economics not yet separated.", "company_attribution_route": "not_established", "coverage": { "numerator": null, "denominator": null, "period": null, "qualitative_rationale": "The packet lacks a product-specific materiality bridge and does not isolate organic scarcity economics from acquisition and FX effects." }, "materiality_status": "unassessable", "materiality_rationale": "The packet lacks a product-specific materiality bridge and does not isolate organic scarcity economics from acquisition and FX effects.", "dependencies": [ "data-center construction", "project conversion", "component supply", "working capital", "rival capacity" ] }, "dimensions": { "constraint": { "value": 2, "anchor_id": "C2", "reason": "Demand is strong, but product-level alternatives and expanding competing capacity keep C below the admission floor.", "source_ids": [ "V1", "V2" ], "counterevidence": [ "Schneider and Motivair are expanding competing liquid-cooling capacity, and order backlog does not prove bargaining power." ], "confidence": "Low", "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet supports a tentative judgment but leaves an admission-critical company-level premise unresolved.", "plausible_alternative_anchor": 1 }, "substitution_resistance": { "value": 2, "anchor_id": "S2", "reason": "Project qualification can matter, but the packet does not establish customer switching burdens at company scale.", "source_ids": [ "V1", "V2" ], "counterevidence": [ "Schneider and Motivair are expanding competing liquid-cooling capacity, and order backlog does not prove bargaining power." ], "confidence": "Low", "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet supports a tentative judgment but leaves an admission-critical company-level premise unresolved.", "plausible_alternative_anchor": 1 }, "economic_capture": { "value": 3, "anchor_id": "E3", "reason": "Current operating capture is observed, with acquisition and FX components separated from organic growth claims.", "source_ids": [ "V1" ], "counterevidence": [ "Schneider and Motivair are expanding competing liquid-cooling capacity, and order backlog does not prove bargaining power." ], "confidence": "Moderate", "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet contains traceable primary evidence and an external challenge, with visible limits on magnitude or duration.", "plausible_alternative_anchor": null }, "persistence": { "value": 2, "anchor_id": "P2", "reason": "Price-cost retention through rival expansion and project cycles is unresolved.", "source_ids": [ "V1", "V2" ], "counterevidence": [ "Schneider and Motivair are expanding competing liquid-cooling capacity, and order backlog does not prove bargaining power." ], "confidence": "Low", "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet supports a tentative judgment but leaves an admission-critical company-level premise unresolved.", "plausible_alternative_anchor": 1 }, "cost_of_defense": { "value": 2, "anchor_id": "D2", "reason": "Capacity, working-capital, and service requirements leave residual retention plausible but sensitive.", "source_ids": [ "V1", "V2" ], "counterevidence": [ "Schneider and Motivair are expanding competing liquid-cooling capacity, and order backlog does not prove bargaining power." ], "confidence": "Moderate", "confidence_reason": "The frozen packet contains traceable primary evidence and an external challenge, with visible limits on magnitude or duration.", "plausible_alternative_anchor": null } }, "score": { "method_id": "speg-index-scarcity-v1.0.0", "total": 11, "vector": [ 2, 2, 3, 2, 2 ], "scale": "ordinal", "label": "Scarcity Durability Score", "meaning": "Ordinal research summary; not a probability, percentile, rank, or numerical valuation input." }, "eligibility": { "eligible_for_inclusion": false, "dimension_floors": { "pass": false, "reason": "At least one dimension is unknown or below its floor." }, "materiality": { "pass": false, "reason": "Company-level materiality is unassessable." }, "decisive_confidence": { "pass": false, "reason": "At least one decisive dimension is below Moderate confidence." }, "source_packet": { "pass": false, "reason": "Minimum admission packet is incomplete." }, "current_review": { "pass": true, "reason": "Structural review is current at the research cutoff." }, "material_event": { "pass": false, "reason": "A material perimeter or eligibility event remains unresolved." }, "reason_codes": [ "dimension_floors_failed", "materiality_failed", "decisive_confidence_failed", "source_packet_failed", "material_event_failed" ] }, "decision": { "research_decision": "watchlist", "membership_state": null, "owner": "Mike Ye", "prepared_by": "Ella", "rationale": "11/20; watchlist\n\nQ2 revenue was $3.274bn; GAAP operating profit $638m versus adjusted $738m. Growth included organic, acquisition and FX components. Management identifies project timing/supply congestion, while Schneider/Motivair's factory announcement demonstrates expanding competing supply. [V1–V2]\n\n**Judgment:** E3 acknowledges current operating capture; C2/S2/P2/D2 reflect unresolved product-level alternatives, contract price-cost retention and investment needs. Low confidence applies to durable company-wide scarcity. An order backlog or physical cooling requirement does not prove persistent bargaining power.\n\n**Admission evidence needed:** product-specific qualification constraints and retained price-cost economics as rival capacity expands, plus a material company-perimeter bridge. Next results/competitive-capacity update/by December 16. The earlier September transaction lead remains unverified in definitive primary documents; it receives no numerical credit and keeps current equity valuation blocked. No admission is justified by growth alone.", "falsifiers": [ "Rival capacity eliminates lead-time or pricing advantage", "Order conversion weakens materially", "Capacity and working-capital needs absorb retained economics" ], "next_observation": "Obtain product-specific qualification constraints, retained price-cost economics, and definitive transaction evidence.", "due_date": "2026-12-16" }, "review": { "as_of_cutoff": "2026-09-17", "reviewed_at": "2026-09-17T23:48:49Z", "source_dates": [ "2026-07-29", "2026-02-18" ], "next_review_due": "2026-12-16", "event_status": "review_open", "publication_at": "2026-09-18T00:15:00Z", "effective_at": "2026-09-18T00:15:00Z" }, "sensitivity": { "single_dimension_downgrade_pass": { "constraint": false, "substitution_resistance": false, "economic_capture": false, "persistence": false, "cost_of_defense": false }, "binding_dimensions": [ "constraint", "substitution_resistance", "economic_capture", "persistence", "cost_of_defense" ], "interpretation": "rule_sensitivity_not_confidence_interval" }, "release": { "state": "released", "release_id": "speg-index-2026-09-17-v1", "predecessor_release_id": "speg-index-2026-09-17-rc1", "change_reasons": [ "initial_membership_release", "freshness_and_material_event_review" ], "content_hash": "sha256:dd781d157b8ea937d6797ce3e6b29b04685993d631fda989e15bfb0b2eb5592a" }, "valuation": { "peg_eligible": false, "peg": null, "peg_null_reason": "qualified_reference_path_not_assembled", "economic_profile_id": null, "economic_speg": null, "economic_speg_null_reason": "paired_valuation_uncalibrated", "sds_used_as_valuation_input": false } } ], "sources": [ { "id": "A1", "publisher": "ASML", "url": "https://www.asml.com/en/news/press-releases/2026/q2-2026-financial-results", "title": "ASML Q2 results", "publication_date": "2026-07-15", "event_date": "2026-07-15", "reporting_period": "Q2 2026", "retrieval_date": "2026-09-17", "locator": "July 15, 2026; results/CEO statement", "origin_group": "asml", "claim_type": "reported_fact", "factual_summary": "Quarterly results and management discussion of current sales, margins, and capacity plans.", "limitations": "Reported capture; planned capacity is not shipments" }, { "id": "A2", "publisher": "ASML", "url": "https://www.asml.com/en/products/euv-lithography-systems", "title": "ASML EUV systems", "publication_date": null, "event_date": null, "reporting_period": null, "retrieval_date": "2026-09-17", "locator": "Undated; product description", "origin_group": "asml", "claim_type": "technical_description", "factual_summary": "Product description for ASML extreme-ultraviolet lithography systems.", "limitations": "Technical perimeter; not willingness-to-pay evidence" }, { "id": "A3", "publisher": "Intel and ASML", "url": "https://www.intc.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/1781/intel-foundry-and-asml-collaborate-to-accelerate-industry", "title": "Intel/ASML High-NA update", "publication_date": "2026-09-08", "event_date": "2026-09-08", "reporting_period": null, "retrieval_date": "2026-09-17", "locator": "September 8, 2026; production discussion", "origin_group": "intel-asml-joint", "claim_type": "management_assertion", "factual_summary": "Joint production update on Intel Foundry and ASML High-NA collaboration.", "limitations": "Joint commercial origin; selected layers, not universal adoption" }, { "id": "A4", "publisher": "ASML", "url": "https://www.asml.com/en/investors/annual-report/2025", "title": "ASML 2025 annual report highlights", "publication_date": null, "event_date": null, "reporting_period": "FY2025", "retrieval_date": "2026-09-17", "locator": "FY2025; profitability/R&D", "origin_group": "asml", "claim_type": "reported_fact", "factual_summary": "Annual-report evidence on operating income and research and development spending.", "limitations": "Earnings after engineering; not full maintenance-capex attribution" }, { "id": "A5", "publisher": "Reuters", "url": "https://www.reuters.com/business/asml-says-first-chips-new-high-na-machines-arrive-months-2026-05-19/", "title": "Reuters customer-adoption report", "publication_date": "2026-05-19", "event_date": "2026-05-19", "reporting_period": null, "retrieval_date": "2026-09-17", "locator": "May 19, 2026; TSMC comments", "origin_group": "reuters-asml-adoption", "claim_type": "counterevidence", "factual_summary": "External reporting of customer cost reservations and adoption timing for High-NA systems.", "limitations": "External reporting of customer cost reservations; dated, not a September plan" }, { "id": "C1", "publisher": "Cadence Design Systems", "url": "https://investor.cadence.com/news/news-details/2026/Cadence-Reports-Second-Quarter-2026-Financial-Results/default.aspx", "title": "Cadence Q2 results", "publication_date": "2026-07-27", "event_date": "2026-07-27", "reporting_period": "Q2 2026", "retrieval_date": "2026-09-17", "locator": "July 27, 2026; results/reconciliation", "origin_group": "cadence", "claim_type": "reported_fact", "factual_summary": "Quarterly financial results, reconciliation, research spending, and core EDA growth.", "limitations": "GAAP, R&D, core versus acquired growth" }, { "id": "S1", "publisher": "Synopsys", "url": "https://news.synopsys.com/2026-08-26-Synopsys-Posts-Financial-Results-for-Third-Quarter-Fiscal-Year-2026", "title": "Synopsys Q3 results", "publication_date": "2026-08-26", "event_date": "2026-08-26", "reporting_period": "Q3 FY2026", "retrieval_date": "2026-09-17", "locator": "August 26, 2026; results/outlook/reconciliation", "origin_group": "synopsys", "claim_type": "reported_fact", "factual_summary": "Quarterly financial results, outlook, and acquisition-sensitive reconciliation.", "limitations": "Acquisition perimeter and GAAP adjustment limits" }, { "id": "X1", "publisher": "TSMC", "url": "https://www.tsmc.com/english/dedicatedFoundry/oip/eda_alliance", "title": "TSMC EDA Alliance", "publication_date": null, "event_date": null, "reporting_period": null, "retrieval_date": "2026-09-17", "locator": "Partner list April 22; certification tables July 10, 2026", "origin_group": "tsmc-eda-alliance", "claim_type": "counterevidence", "factual_summary": "Foundry alliance and certification materials showing workflow integration and multiple competing EDA providers.", "limitations": "External structural support and competing providers; no unobserved icon-level claims" }, { "id": "N1", "publisher": "NVIDIA", "url": "https://nvidianews.nvidia.com/news/nvidia-announces-financial-results-for-second-quarter-fiscal-2027", "title": "NVIDIA Q2 FY2027 results", "publication_date": "2026-08-26", "event_date": "2026-08-26", "reporting_period": "Q2 FY2027", "retrieval_date": "2026-09-17", "locator": "August 26, 2026; financial tables/platform highlights", "origin_group": "nvidia", "claim_type": "reported_fact", "factual_summary": "Quarterly financial results and accelerated-computing platform disclosures.", "limitations": "Current economics and perimeter; issuer assertions about superiority" }, { "id": "N2", "publisher": "Amazon Web Services", "url": "https://aws.amazon.com/ai/machine-learning/trainium/", "title": "AWS Trainium", "publication_date": null, "event_date": null, "reporting_period": null, "retrieval_date": "2026-09-17", "locator": "Undated; architecture/Neuron/customers", "origin_group": "aws-trainium", "claim_type": "counterevidence", "factual_summary": "A competing integrated accelerator, software, and customer migration path.", "limitations": "Independent commercial alternative; performance/migration claims unverified" }, { "id": "N3", "publisher": "NVIDIA", "url": "https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/nvidia-to-acquire-hugging-face/", "title": "NVIDIA agreement to acquire Hugging Face", "publication_date": "2026-09-03", "event_date": "2026-09-03", "reporting_period": null, "retrieval_date": "2026-09-17", "locator": "September 3, 2026; transaction announcement and open-platform commitments", "origin_group": "nvidia", "claim_type": "future_plan", "factual_summary": "Agreement to acquire Hugging Face, including the stated consideration and commitments to preserve an open, multi-cloud, multi-accelerator platform.", "limitations": "Announced transaction, not a closed acquisition; consideration, financing, integration costs and realized platform effects remain unobserved" }, { "id": "T1", "publisher": "TSMC", "url": "https://investor.tsmc.com/english/quarterly-results/2026/q2", "title": "TSMC Q2 results", "publication_date": "2026-07-16", "event_date": "2026-07-16", "reporting_period": "Q2 2026", "retrieval_date": "2026-09-17", "locator": "July 16, 2026; actuals", "origin_group": "tsmc", "claim_type": "reported_fact", "factual_summary": "Quarterly actual results and profitability.", "limitations": "Reported margins; fresh retrieval does not renew forecast vintage" }, { "id": "T2", "publisher": "TSMC", "url": "https://investor.tsmc.com/english/encrypt/files/encrypt_file/reports/2026-07/a80d7933be643644081584087731f73b22ea5a2c/2Q26%20EarningsRelease.pdf", "title": "TSMC Q2 earnings release", "publication_date": "2026-07-16", "event_date": "2026-07-16", "reporting_period": "Q2 2026", "retrieval_date": "2026-09-17", "locator": "July 16, 2026; page 1", "origin_group": "tsmc", "claim_type": "reported_fact", "factual_summary": "Earnings release with the reported advanced-node wafer-revenue mix.", "limitations": "Wafer mix denominator distinguished" }, { "id": "T3", "publisher": "TSMC", "url": "https://investor.tsmc.com/english/encrypt/files/encrypt_file/reports/2026-08/3e494f0c14dd0890f897aa044415e21d93486cc4/TSMC%202Q26%20Transcript.pdf", "title": "TSMC Q2 call", "publication_date": "2026-07-16", "event_date": "2026-07-16", "reporting_period": "Q2 2026", "retrieval_date": "2026-09-17", "locator": "July 16 event; pages 3–4", "origin_group": "tsmc", "claim_type": "management_assertion", "factual_summary": "Earnings-call disclosures on capital spending and margin dilution from new-node and overseas ramps.", "limitations": "Capex and dilution are management disclosures; LSEG transcript hosted by issuer" }, { "id": "X2", "publisher": "Samsung Electronics", "url": "https://news.samsung.com/global/samsung-electronics-announces-second-quarter-2026-results", "title": "Samsung Q2 results", "publication_date": "2026-07-30", "event_date": "2026-07-30", "reporting_period": "Q2 2026", "retrieval_date": "2026-09-17", "locator": "July 30, 2026; DS section", "origin_group": "samsung", "claim_type": "counterevidence", "factual_summary": "Rival foundry and HBM activity, engagements, and planned ramps.", "limitations": "Rival HBM/foundry activity; plans not equivalent qualified scale" }, { "id": "D1", "publisher": "Analog Devices", "url": "https://investor.analog.com/news-releases/news-release-details/analog-devices-reports-record-fiscal-third-quarter-2026", "title": "ADI Q3 results", "publication_date": "2026-08-19", "event_date": "2026-08-19", "reporting_period": "Q3 FY2026", "retrieval_date": "2026-09-17", "locator": "August 19, 2026; financial tables", "origin_group": "analog-devices", "claim_type": "reported_fact", "factual_summary": "Quarterly financial results and company-defined free cash flow.", "limitations": "Reported capture, company-defined FCF" }, { "id": "D2", "publisher": "Analog Devices", "url": "https://www.analog.com/en/support/product-life-cycle-information.html", "title": "ADI lifecycle policy", "publication_date": null, "event_date": null, "reporting_period": null, "retrieval_date": "2026-09-17", "locator": "Undated; lifecycle support", "origin_group": "analog-devices", "claim_type": "management_assertion", "factual_summary": "Issuer product-life-cycle and continuity policy.", "limitations": "Issuer continuity policy, not observed switching cost" }, { "id": "D3", "publisher": "Texas Instruments", "url": "https://www.ti.com/quality-reliability/quality/product-life-cycle.html", "title": "TI lifecycle policy", "publication_date": null, "event_date": null, "reporting_period": null, "retrieval_date": "2026-09-17", "locator": "Undated; lifecycle", "origin_group": "texas-instruments", "claim_type": "counterevidence", "factual_summary": "A rival product-life-cycle policy that limits a uniqueness inference from long product lives.", "limitations": "Rival continuity counters uniqueness inference" }, { "id": "D4", "publisher": "Analog Devices", "url": "https://investor.analog.com/", "title": "ADI investor news", "publication_date": "2026-09-09", "event_date": "2026-09-09", "reporting_period": null, "retrieval_date": "2026-09-17", "locator": "September 9, 2026 acquisition headline", "origin_group": "analog-devices", "claim_type": "future_plan", "factual_summary": "An acquisition announcement requiring a future perimeter review.", "limitations": "Event flag only; no deal economics incorporated" }, { "id": "R1", "publisher": "Arista Networks", "url": "https://www.arista.com/company/news/press-release/24401-pr-20260804", "title": "Arista Q2 results", "publication_date": "2026-08-04", "event_date": "2026-08-04", "reporting_period": "Q2 2026", "retrieval_date": "2026-09-17", "locator": "August 4, 2026; results/risks", "origin_group": "arista", "claim_type": "reported_fact", "factual_summary": "Quarterly results and disclosed customer, supplier, and competitive risks.", "limitations": "Margin plus customer/supplier/competition risks" }, { "id": "R2", "publisher": "Arista Networks", "url": "https://www.arista.com/en/products/eos", "title": "Arista EOS", "publication_date": null, "event_date": null, "reporting_period": null, "retrieval_date": "2026-09-17", "locator": "Undated; architecture/open choices", "origin_group": "arista", "claim_type": "counterevidence", "factual_summary": "EOS architecture materials that describe integration alongside open standards and customer alternatives.", "limitations": "Integration and countervailing interoperability" }, { "id": "H1", "publisher": "SK hynix", "url": "https://news.skhynix.com/en/q2-2026-business-results/", "title": "SK hynix Q2 results", "publication_date": "2026-07-29", "event_date": "2026-07-29", "reporting_period": "Q2 2026", "retrieval_date": "2026-09-17", "locator": "July 29, 2026; results/contracts/ramp", "origin_group": "sk-hynix", "claim_type": "reported_fact", "factual_summary": "Preliminary quarterly results, HBM shipments, contracts, and capacity plans.", "limitations": "Preliminary K-IFRS, current capture not guaranteed future rents" }, { "id": "H2", "publisher": "SK hynix", "url": "https://news.skhynix.com/en/groundbreaking-ceremony-in-indiana/", "title": "SK hynix Indiana project", "publication_date": "2026-08-28", "event_date": "2026-08-28", "reporting_period": null, "retrieval_date": "2026-09-17", "locator": "August 28, 2026; timing/investment", "origin_group": "sk-hynix", "claim_type": "future_plan", "factual_summary": "A future Indiana investment and production-timing announcement.", "limitations": "Future construction/ramp, not today's qualified output" }, { "id": "M1", "publisher": "Micron Technology", "url": "https://investors.micron.com/news/press-release/2026/Micron-Technology-Inc--Reports-Record-Results-for-the-Third-Quarter-of-Fiscal-2026/default.aspx", "title": "Micron Q3 results", "publication_date": "2026-06-24", "event_date": "2026-06-24", "reporting_period": "Q3 FY2026", "retrieval_date": "2026-09-17", "locator": "June 24, 2026; reported results", "origin_group": "micron", "claim_type": "reported_fact", "factual_summary": "Quarterly reported results from the prior mechanism pilot.", "limitations": "Current reported quarter in prior pilot, not four-year consensus" }, { "id": "M2", "publisher": "Micron Technology", "url": "https://s25.q4cdn.com/621799436/files/doc_financials/2026/q3/Q3-FY26-Prepared-Remarks.pdf", "title": "Micron prepared remarks", "publication_date": "2026-06-24", "event_date": "2026-06-24", "reporting_period": "Q3 FY2026", "retrieval_date": "2026-09-17", "locator": "June 24, 2026; SCAs/capex/deposits", "origin_group": "micron", "claim_type": "management_assertion", "factual_summary": "Prepared remarks on strategic agreements, planned capacity, capital spending, and deposits.", "limitations": "Management terms/plans; executed versus planned coverage" }, { "id": "V1", "publisher": "Vertiv", "url": "https://investors.vertiv.com/news/news-details/2026/Vertiv-Reports-Strong-Second-Quarter-2026-with-Diluted-EPS-Growth-of-53-Adjusted-Diluted-EPS-Growth-of-60-Raises-Full-Year-2026-Guidance-Across-All-Key-Metrics/default.aspx", "title": "Vertiv Q2 results", "publication_date": "2026-07-29", "event_date": "2026-07-29", "reporting_period": "Q2 2026", "retrieval_date": "2026-09-17", "locator": "July 29, 2026; tables/price-cost/risks", "origin_group": "vertiv", "claim_type": "reported_fact", "factual_summary": "Quarterly results, price-cost discussion, order conversion, and GAAP reconciliation.", "limitations": "GAAP distinction and order-conversion limits" }, { "id": "V2", "publisher": "Schneider Electric and Motivair", "url": "https://www.se.com/in/en/about-us/newsroom/news/press-releases/Schneider-Electric-launches-Motivair-liquid-cooling-solutions-factory-to-accelerate-India%E2%80%99s-highdensity-AI-infrastructure-699493fd07a7fbd2c30cbafa/", "title": "Schneider/Motivair factory", "publication_date": "2026-02-18", "event_date": "2026-02-18", "reporting_period": null, "retrieval_date": "2026-09-17", "locator": "February 18, 2026; factory announcement", "origin_group": "schneider-motivair", "claim_type": "counterevidence", "factual_summary": "A rival liquid-cooling factory announcement showing expanding competing supply.", "limitations": "Rival capacity activity; no current lead-time parity inferred" } ], "provenance": { "research_owner": "Mike Ye", "prepared_by": "Ella", "source_count": 27, "source_origin_groups": [ "analog-devices", "arista", "asml", "aws-trainium", "cadence", "intel-asml-joint", "micron", "nvidia", "reuters-asml-adoption", "samsung", "schneider-motivair", "sk-hynix", "synopsys", "texas-instruments", "tsmc", "tsmc-eda-alliance", "vertiv" ], "notes": "First released sPEG Index snapshot. Five profiles satisfy every admission gate and become members; five remain non-member watchlist research. SDS remains ordinal selection evidence, valuation remains null, and no return or portfolio-weight claim is made." }, "links": { "self": "https://mcp.exmxc.ai/speg/index/v1", "methodology": "https://mcp.exmxc.ai/speg/index/v1/methodology", "schema": "https://mcp.exmxc.ai/schemas/speg-index-profile-v1", "release": "https://mcp.exmxc.ai/speg/index/v1/releases/speg-index-2026-09-17-v1", "public_hub": "https://www.exmxc.ai/speg-index", "public_methodology": "https://www.exmxc.ai/speg-methodology" } }